My Current View of $OKLO


In my opinion, two companies are turning the energy crisis created by artificial intelligence into an opportunity: the first is $CEG | Constellation Energy, and the second is $OKLO. Everyone sees that the biggest physical obstacle to AI is no longer chips, but electricity.

Neither more solar nor wind power. None of these can provide the baseload, uninterrupted, 24/7 power that data centers need. Oklo was established to take advantage of this gap. Comparing Aurora Powerhouse to traditional nuclear power is wrong; they are not, and cannot be, on the scale of Constellation Energy. Large nuclear power plants were built for the old world; massive sites, 10-year construction periods, gigawatt scale. Oklo, on the other hand, offers something different: a modular output of 15-75 MW that can be placed next to the data center and operates without fuel for up to 10 years. How and in what way the power and cooling integration, carried out with $VRT | Vertiv, will be implemented is a point we really don't know; something like this has never been seen before. Because Aurora can be placed next to a data center, it solves the cooling and power infrastructure simultaneously without grid dependency. Legacy nuclear power can never solve this problem because its scale doesn't allow it. Now you'll say, "No, it's not like that," but I can say this clearly: If Oklo can achieve this, they will dominate the energy sector with $CEG, becoming a monopoly.

I was thinking of Oklo in the $30-40 range, I've said this many times, but there have been some developments. Trump, in his State of the Union address, explicitly told big tech companies: "They will generate their own electricity." $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, OpenAI, $AMZN, $ORCL, and Elon Musk's xAI have signed this commitment. Companies will either build, buy, or procure all the power needed for their AI infrastructure. The market calls this "Bring Your Own Power," and this movement is moving from a niche solution to the mainstream. According to Cleanview's analysis, there are 46 data center projects in the US representing a total behind-the-meter capacity of 56 GW, with 90% of these projects announced by 2025. Trump's policy isn't an external side factor for Oklo; it's a key factor in legalizing their business model. A government that forces its customers to find their own off-grid power supply is a boon for Oklo. Hyperscalers like Meta and Switch have gone beyond simply signing this commitment and have already made deals with Oklo. The 12 GW master power agreement signed with Switch is one of the largest enterprise energy deals in history. Meta, on the other hand, signed a prepayment agreement with Oklo for its 1.2 GW nuclear campus in Ohio. I already liked the fact that Meta will be an investor. Know that they didn't choose Oklo by chance. There are many SMR companies and modules involved. They chose Oklo after going through technical evaluation processes, which is very important to me because once a hyperscale customer connects, they don't leave; they pay for 10 years.

There are two reasons why Oklo receives so much state support: 1. External dependence on uranium; 2. Over 80,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel are waiting at reactor sites in the US, and Oklo wants to convert this waste into HALEU (Helium-Assisted Nuclear Fuel) to produce its own fuel and reduce US nuclear pollution.

While competitors are dependent on Russia or enrichment facilities, Oklo produces its own raw materials. With the Russian uranium ban signed in 2024, this has transformed from a competitive advantage into a national security issue. It creates a completely different balance of power in long-term contract negotiations. Of course, they recently relaxed the bans with Russia somewhat, but it is still a major obstacle.

The revenue model is my favorite. Oklo doesn't sell reactors, it sells power. It builds and operates its plant and sells electricity to its customers through long-term agreements. This structure makes Oklo closer to a SaaS (SaaS) company than an energy company: recurring, long-term contracts with virtually zero churn. The pipeline currently spans over 14 GW, the vast majority of which comes from data center and hyperscale customers.

⚠️ And don't forget, Oklo is still pre-revenue.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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