Mini Banking Crisis in the US

Mini Banking Crisis in the US


If their peers were lending to such low-quality borrowers, what might others have done? It seems like the water is still clear, but everything could change at any moment. Despite this uncertainty and risk, regional American banks actually promise significantly higher returns than larger banks. First, while large banks trade at several times their book value, smaller banks trade marginally above their book value. This demonstrates that they are not expensive compared to the larger banks. Another important point is that smaller banks lend with a wider interest rate spread. This will lead to higher returns. Especially with the Fed's interest rate cut, regional banks' business will accelerate and their profitability will increase—assuming they provide high-quality loans. Therefore, despite current events, I'm not removing regional banks from my watchlist. I just need to follow the news more closely and make the right decision. SOFI is my favorite in this regard. We'll see.

Also, this week, the balance sheets of companies in the defense industry, one of the most popular sectors of recent times, are coming out. Everyone knows that, thanks to Trump, defense industry stocks have become a significant presence in both corporate and individual portfolios. Because of the strained global geopolitical relations, we're seeing the importance of defense systems come to the fore once again. Therefore, it's highly likely that these companies' recent contract agreements and balance sheets will be promising. Significant movements in Northrop Grumman, Halliburton, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin stocks are expected in the balance sheets starting Tuesday. This will be a good environment for short-term trading. Separately, we've also entered a crucial week for Tesla enthusiasts. Tesla's Q3 sales were decent, as people in the US were eager to buy before the electric vehicle exemption expired. This is why Tesla's US sales were strong, while those in Europe and China were weak. Therefore, earnings may not be as promising. However, Tesla is known for producing low-cost models, and Elon's statement on this matter will be extremely important. Furthermore, the topic of robotaxi and humaoid robots will be a development that followers will eagerly await. Robotaxi's revenues and the robot's retail sales figures are crucial for stock performance. Let's see what Elon pulls out of the hat.

Nuclear energy, energy storage, and artificial intelligence stocks have been my favorites for a long time. They still are, but just like electric vehicle stocks in 2020/21, the prices of these stocks appear to have outpaced the technology companies are producing. This is because many of these companies aren't yet profitable but were finding buyers for their bright future. At this point, the stocks are now overpriced, and the likelihood of a sharp sell-off has increased. Especially if the indices pull back, these stocks will price these developments even more sharply. I'm not saying there's a bubble in these stocks, as I expect to see higher prices in the future, but I do think the likelihood of a deep correction is significantly increased. For example, OKLO; a company that isn't making money trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38X should be a real concern for investors. Let's see at what levels a correction might find buyers.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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