In the second half of the 20th century, the world witnessed an ideological and strategic conflict between two superpowers. The weapons may have been silent, but the hostilities were cold. This tension between the Soviet Union and the US was called the “Cold War” for many years.
During that period, the confrontations were not on the front lines, but at the table, and sometimes in intelligence wars. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a unipolar world was born under the leadership of the US. However, this period was short-lived. The rise of China, Russia’s renewed aggression, Iran’s regional claims, India’s strategic offensive, and the uncertainty in the US’s global role left their mark on the period.
However, the picture is different today. As we approach the second quarter of the 21st century, the world is once again being dragged into a much more chaotic order, not bipolar but multipolar. Moreover, this time the tension is not only implicit, but the temperature is gradually rising. Hot conflicts have become daily in the geography extending from Ukraine to Gaza, from the Taiwan Strait to the Red Sea. War is not something far from the screens; it is now felt in the price of bread on the table, the number on the electricity bill, and the fluctuations in the exchange rate. In the Cold War, the parties were careful not to cross the final line due to the balance of nuclear terror.
Today, new actors are on the scene: The rise of powers such as China, Russia, Iran, and India, combined with irregularity, creates geopolitical crises that are ready to explode anywhere at any time. Diplomacy is giving way to heroism, and multilateralism to regional blocs. There is another danger. War is no longer just with tanks and rifles. The form of war has also changed with methods such as cyber attacks, cutting off energy supplies, and sabotaging trade routes. It has become possible to bring a country to its knees by cutting off its electricity. Moreover, this time, no one is declaring war; both the enemy and the ally have become uncertain.
In the Cold War, the parties were acting carefully due to the fear of nuclear war. However, today, new actors are on the scene with different dynamics. International law has weakened. Diplomacy has given way to blocs, and cooperation has given way to security paranoia. If the global system is not reorganized with collective intelligence, hot wars may not be limited to local conflicts. We are on the threshold of a period where diplomatic common sense, not technological superiority, is needed more. Today, the world is gradually moving from a “Cold War to a hot war.” But it is not too late. If intelligence, diplomacy and cooperation come into play, this trend can be reversed. Let us not forget: There is no winner in war, but there can be many things that peace builds.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which came to the fore with war, will undoubtedly create multifaceted effects on the global economy, energy security and geopolitical balances. Hormuz is of critical importance to the world, especially in terms of oil and natural gas transportation.
Approximately 20% of the world’s oil trade passes through this strait, while the majority of oil exports of producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait also pass through this strait. Such a situation will cause a supply shortage as alternative routes will be insufficient, and will increase oil and natural gas prices. It could lead to high inflation and a risk of recession in energy-dependent countries, including our country, and especially in EU countries. Energy shocks will reduce consumer spending and industrial production, while new problems will arise in supply chains, and global growth rates will fall.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a serious turning point that could lead to a global energy crisis in the short term, economic stagnation in the medium term, and political blocs and military conflicts in the long term. If such a move were to take place, I claim that the US and EU countries would become active players in the war. This is a situation that we do not want and will not wish for. Therefore, keeping the strait open is both very important and undoubtedly a strategic necessity in terms of the world economy and security balances.
