The world is trying to power everything with electricity simultaneously. AI data centers, industrial and manufacturing facilities, the rapidly increasing heating and cooling needs in developing countries… all are coming online at the same time. On the other hand, governments want to move away from coal, reduce their dependence on Russian gas, and prevent electricity prices from spiraling out of control. Let's be honest, it's impossible to solve this equation with only wind, solar, and battery power by 2030. Renewables are progressing very well, but it's not enough. This is where natural gas comes in as the bridge fuel of the transition period. It's cleaner than coal, its price is more manageable, it can be transported by ships as LNG, and most importantly, it can be switched on and off very quickly when renewables aren't producing. This is an indispensable reality, especially for Europe and Asia.
The company is essentially building a giant LNG export empire. They are building terminals on the US Gulf Coast; they are buying cheap American gas and selling it to the rest of the world. Calcasieu Pass is already operational. Plaquemines LNG is being commissioned at an incredible pace and will very soon be one of the largest LNG facilities in the US. The CP2 project has received all necessary permits, is ready for FID (Field-Inspection), and is under construction. This speed is very rare on this scale. The numbers support what I'm saying. The company is guiding over $6 billion in EBITDA for 2025. Net profit in Q3 2025 was $429 million, LNG sales increased by 260% year-on-year, and export volume reached 100 shipments; this represents a 237% increase compared to the same period last year. The $3 billion bond issued for Plaquemines shows that the markets still have confidence in the company on the financing side. Debts are being refinanced, and growth continues.
The question on everyone's mind is, if this company is doing so well, why did its stock fall by almost 50%? I would ask the same question. Let me explain: there's no operational breakdown or decline. The problem is the legal process with Shell, ongoing legal cases with BP and several large customers, and fears that gas prices and LNG spreads could put pressure on margins. Many investors didn't want to deal with this noise, and the stock dropped from $25 to $6; it was priced as if the company was on the verge of bankruptcy. My perspective differs here. When you really delve into the files, you see this: the company already sets aside around $15 million in legal provisions each quarter. Spread over 20 years, this adds up to a burden of just over $1 billion. Even the worst-case scenario for all remaining lawsuits after the BP decision is far, far less than the approximately $12 billion in market value lost from the stock. So the market is pricing these lawsuits as if they will destroy the company; whereas the math says it's a troublesome but manageable situation. Moreover, this cash outflow won't happen all at once, but will be spread over years. By then, we'll be talking about a Venture Global with more facilities up and running and generating much stronger cash flow. The open $2 billion credit line and ongoing project financing also show that banks still have confidence in this structure.
And let's not forget the path Trump has charted in macroeconomics. Trump's influence is causing a surge in global LNG demand. As you know, they sold it to us at a very high price. Europe has become dependent on US LNG to escape Russian gas (except for France, which solved the problem with nuclear power), and this situation continues into 2025. Now, Trump is forcing China and India in Asia to import more US LNG to meet their energy needs. Venture Global's advantage here is access to cheap US gas, a much faster construction capability compared to its competitors, and long-term contracts. Plaquemines are mechanically complete, CP2 is fully licensed, and FID is ready. This combination is rare in the sector.
The valuation side is also quite interesting, in my opinion. $VG Venture Global is trading at approximately 1.35x book value. In a capital-intensive, strategic sector like LNG, this is cheap. For comparison: Cheniere Energy is at 6.7x book value. The same sector, the same customers, the same geopolitical winds… One is at a distress price, the other at a premium. Either the entire LNG sector is excessively expensive, or Venture Global is excessively cheap. I believe the latter. There are also risks you need to be aware of when considering a cut-loss. Volatility in gas prices could tighten margins, unexpected decisions could emerge in new lawsuits, or global demand could temporarily slow. But given the AI, data centers, and electrification trends, I think a major collapse in demand is unlikely. The upside is huge.
When the lawsuits are resolved in a manageable manner, and the case won against Shell shows this is possible (Shell will appeal the decision), the stock could easily be repriced in the $15-20 range. With the expansion of its own LNG tanker fleet, increased export capacity, and the commissioning of new facilities, it wouldn't surprise me if EBITDA approached $10 billion in 2026-2027. This roughly represents a potential 2-3 times the current market value. I see a lot of noise, but the math is calm. I prefer math, right or wrong. I don't have any spot investments. I'm considering buying long-term options, but depending on the situation, I might give it a small place in my small-cap portfolio. It's a high-risk company.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
