The ‘black swan’, a concept that refers to unpredictable and major events, is this time in the Strait of Hormuz. High commodity prices, especially oil prices, are one of the most important factors triggering global inflation. For many countries already struggling with high inflation, this situation creates an even more destabilizing effect on economic stability.

A possible direct military conflict between Israel and Iran is a potential ‘black swan’ event that could cause major fluctuations in the already fragile global economy. The Black Swan Event is a concept popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that refers to rare, unpredictable events that have major consequences when they occur. Although these events are unpredictable before they occur, they are rationalized in hindsight as if they were predictable after they occur.

The term “black swan” dates back to the discovery of black swans in Australia in the 17th century. Until then, Europeans believed that all swans were white. The emergence of a black swan completely changed this deep-rooted belief and became a metaphor for rare and impossible situations. This conflict is more than just a regional war; it can deeply affect many layers of the world economy with a domino effect.

The Middle East is a region that holds a significant portion of global oil production and hosts strategically important transit points (especially the Strait of Hormuz). In the event of an Israel-Iran conflict, it is inevitable that there will be immediate and significant upward pressure on oil prices.

* Supply restrictions: Depending on the intensity and duration of the conflict, oil production facilities or shipping routes in the region may be damaged or become risky. This situation may cause serious disruptions in global oil supply, causing prices to rise rapidly.

* Risk premium: With the increasing risk of war, investors and markets will demand a ‘risk premium’ against possible supply disruptions. This situation may increase oil prices even if there is no actual supply disruption. The barrel price of Brent oil may exceed $100, or even test higher levels, depending on the intensity and spread of the conflict.

* Other commodities: Since the increase in oil prices will directly affect energy costs, it will also put upward pressure on other commodity prices by increasing production and transportation costs. Industrial metals and agricultural products in particular may be affected by rising energy costs. Natural gas prices may also increase significantly, especially considering Europe's sensitivity to energy supply security.

* Global inflation: High commodity prices, especially oil prices, are one of the most important factors driving global inflation. For many countries already struggling with high inflation, this situation creates an even more destabilizing effect on economic stability.

* Central bank decisions: Central banks struggling with high inflation may be forced to tighten interest rate hike cycles or maintain current high interest rates for longer. This could slow global economic growth or increase the risk of recession.

* Sanctions: In the event of an escalation of the conflict, Western countries, especially the US, may tighten existing sanctions on Iran or impose new sanctions. These sanctions could further restrict Iran’s oil exports, further tightening global oil markets.

* Disruption of trade routes: Increased security risks in the region could affect important maritime routes for international trade (e.g. the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz). Shipping costs could increase and supply chains could be disrupted.

* Turning to safe haven assets: With the onset of conflict, investors may turn to safe haven assets such as gold, US dollars and government bonds. This could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets.

* Decrease in foreign direct investment: Uncertainty in the region and globally could reduce foreign direct investment (FDI). Businesses may postpone their investments or shift them to safer havens.

As a result, a potential conflict between Israel and Iran could not only be a regional disaster, but could also cause a chain reaction that could have devastating effects on the global economy. Uncontrolled increases in oil prices, inflationary pressures, economic slowdowns, trade wars and market volatility could have consequences that would affect millions of people around the world. Therefore, it is vital that the international community, the UN, and regional countries step up their diplomatic efforts to prevent such a conflict and take steps to reduce tensions.