While the establishment of peace between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will ease global energy and logistics pressures, the automotive ecosystem will not return to the "old normal." The crisis has caused permanent disruptions in the sector. The Strait of Hormuz crisis significantly increased costs in the EU automotive sector. Energy prices rose by 30% to 40%, while raw material costs increased by up to 25%. Logistics costs skyrocketed due to rising freight rates and insurance premiums. These pressures directly impacted vehicle prices. The increase in raw material costs due to the intensive use of petroleum derivatives raised production costs by up to 25%. Security risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased freight rates, and the risk of war increased insurance premiums, while delays occurred in parts shipments from Asia to the EU. As a result of these energy and logistics-related cost pressures, a wave of price increases was observed in the EU automotive market.
In terms of energy dependence, even if oil prices fall, manufacturers have now made energy diversification and renewable resources a strategic priority. In terms of electric vehicle demand, the shift towards electric vehicles, which accelerated during the crisis, has created a lasting transformation in consumer behavior. People now see electric vehicles as the "safe choice of the future." As part of supply chain restructuring, companies have begun establishing new production and logistics centers in Europe and North Africa to reduce dependence on Asia. These investments are foreseen as an irreversible trend. In terms of financing models, digital credit and leasing solutions, which accelerated during the crisis, will now be a key element of customer loyalty. Although the US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy and logistics-related pressures, automotive sector costs are not expected to fully return to pre-crisis levels. While the decline in oil and freight prices may have a short-term easing effect on costs, the sector's cost structure will remain high in the long term due to factors such as investments in energy diversification, high insurance premiums, and supply chain restructuring.
In terms of energy costs, the 20 million barrels of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily constitute approximately 25% of global oil trade. While the post-crisis peace process has contributed to price stabilization, the level at which Brent crude oil will stabilize remains a significant point of contention. This uncertainty could lead to high energy costs at production facilities. Petroleum-based inputs such as plastic parts, synthetic rubber, paints, and chemical coatings are directly affected by oil prices. Therefore, upward pressure on raw material costs is expected to continue. In terms of freight and insurance, war risk insurance premiums and freight rates have increased in maritime transport due to security risks. While alternative routes have partially alleviated cost pressure, logistics costs on the Asia-Europe route have permanently reached a higher level.
In terms of risks, a renewed rise in energy prices, the recurrence of logistics bottlenecks, and increased cost pressure for producers dependent on Asia are among the main risks. Regarding electric vehicles, rising oil prices are making them more attractive. Tax advantages and lower operating costs in many countries are also important factors supporting the preference for electric vehicles. The US-Iran peace process and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may alleviate short-term cost pressures stemming from energy and logistics. However, energy and logistics costs in the automotive sector are not expected to return to pre-crisis levels. Therefore, energy diversification and regional production centers remain of strategic importance for manufacturers.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will further accelerate the transformation already underway in the automotive sector. However, this process signifies the strengthening of a new era rather than a return to the old normal. The crisis permanently shifted manufacturers towards different strategies; the peaceful environment is creating a favorable ground for the faster implementation of these strategies. Energy diversification, electric vehicle production, regional supply chains, and digital financing solutions stand out as key elements shaping the future of the sector. This transformation, which began during the crisis, is expected to gain even stronger momentum with the arrival of peace.
