Against Windmills!

Against Windmills!


According to US President Donald Trump, climate change is the biggest scam ever committed. While defending fossil fuels, Trump seizes every opportunity to increase America's oil and natural gas exports. The global fight against the climate crisis is being hampered by leaders like Trump. The 80th General Assembly has received little attention worldwide. This demonstrates the UN's growing ineffectiveness and the deadlock of the post-World War II order. The institutions founded in Bretton Woods in 1944—the World Bank, the IMF, the UN, and the GATT, which later became the World Trade Organization—were not instruments of international order but of American hegemony. That's why UN officials listened to Trump's speech at last week's UN meeting with bated breath. After all, Trump could have continued his multilateralist campaign by targeting the UN. Thankfully, the fears came to nothing. Instead, he delivered a rambling and lengthy speech targeting Europe and its climate and migration policies. Trump, who in his presidential address declared, “Drill, baby, drill,” fueled the opening of new oil and gas wells, considers climate change the biggest scam ever perpetrated in the world. He believes renewable energy is a joke. The carbon footprint is a hoax concocted by malicious circles. According to Trump, green energy will be Europe’s suicide. However, the situation on the ground is different. Texas, the US oil and natural gas capital, is today the country’s largest renewable energy production hub. Tech giants, among Trump’s biggest supporters, are turning to renewable investments to meet the high energy needs of their data centers. Because clean energy is now cheaper. According to the UN, 90 percent of renewable energy sources in newly built facilities are cheaper than fossil fuels. According to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar energy, once four times cheaper than fossil fuels, is now 41 percent cheaper, and offshore wind is 53 percent cheaper. This is why investments are rapidly shifting direction: Last year, clean energy investments reached two trillion dollars, surpassing fossil fuels by $800 billion. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also predicts that global oil demand will peak in 2040. Other institutions have predicted earlier peak dates.

While Trump defends fossil fuels and seizes every opportunity to increase America's oil and natural gas exports, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the EU will continue to advance its climate goals. According to von der Leyen, clean energy is not only a matter of combating climate change, but also of energy security and prosperity. The Commission President made sure to emphasize that Europe is leading the way in this regard. Global fossil fuel reserves are unbalanced, creating energy security challenges. Countries and consumers are vulnerable to price shocks and supply disruptions for fossil fuels. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the latest example of this.

Before the war, 45 percent of Europe's gas and 50 percent of its oil and coal came from Russia. When Russia cut off gas during the war, Europe faced a serious energy crisis. As a result, the energy transition has accelerated. China is perhaps the most critical actor in the energy transition. From the once "coal monster," China has now become the world's largest green technology exporter. China, the most fossil-dependent country in the 2010s, has transformed into the economy with the highest electrification rate. Population decline, slowing growth, and the energy revolution are reducing China's demand for oil. Energy consumption, from electric vehicles to heating, from industry to infrastructure, is rapidly shifting to electricity. According to the IEA, China alone accounts for one-third of global clean energy investments. Moreover, it is not only driving its own transformation but also dominating global green supply chains by exporting cheap technology to developing countries.

From a geopolitical perspective, the Trump administration's defense of fossil fuels is a reflection of its rivalry with China. In other words, the struggle isn't just about trade or technology, but also about the future of energy. Trump's mocking of the climate crisis won't be enough to stop this transformation. However, the US's fossil-focused policies will impose strategic costs on the US as it ignores the changing energy era.

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