Are We in A Bull Market or Not?

That's the million dollar question right now.

And I can't stop asking myself the same question over and over in the last few days.

Like always the market is very emotional, and sometimes the emotions can win over your goals.

The market has been volatile for a few weeks now, and the timeline seems to turn bearish. In moments like this, I like to zoom out and touch grass. Sometimes is the best thing to do.

In the last year the global crypto market cap went from 1.25 Trillions to the current level of 2.5 Trillions.

It's clearly an up trend. We can't deny it, some coins went parabolic in a matter of months and some didn't.

The volume is spiking too in the last year. Especially in the last 3 months.

So there are evidences to prove that we are in a bull market. 

Why the timeline is turning bearish?

I honestly don't think there are more players that the 2021-22 era. I think there are the same amount of people, and these players lived the last crypto crash, and they suffer of Crypto PTSD. 

I definitely do, so I'm a bit scared; but I also think this cycle is a bit different.

How different?

There a few evidences.

The most obvious one is: we hit All Time High for BTC for the first time before the halving. It never happened before. Usually a ATH on BTC happens after the halving, and I'm talking like 500 days after it. 

In 2016 the halving was in July, the ATH was in December 2017.

In 2020 the halving was in May, the ATH was in November 2021. 

Both times over 500 days waiting for ATH and for Alts to move as well.

Second: there is a Bitcoin ETF. And that means a lot of different things. For sure we know big players are in now, and the market will be manipulated more easily. More money inflow, more risks.

Third thing to consider is most Altcoins didn't move as much as Bitcoin, so most liquidity is sucked by Bitcoin, and we probably see that for a while. 

Answer

We probably are in a downtrend in the short term. Some coins are testing some key levels. But in the long term we are probably in an uptrend.

If you are impatient and emotional you probably will lose money.

This is definitely a bull market, but it doesn't happen in a day or two but over months. 

So my suggestion is be patient, play your cards well, take profits and you will win this race.