Hi friends hope you are well and welcome to the new update on Zcash. 1st of all I would like to share a recap of my previous chart with you that I have shared back in Oct 2019. That the Zcash had formed a bullish Crab pattern on two day chart and I was expecting after taking the bullish divergence from the potential reversal zone of this pattern the Zcash will produce a long term bullish rally. But as per prediction the priceline took a powerful bullish divergence but after producing more than 170% gains dropped down again at the PRZ level.
Bullish Crab pattern before execution:
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Bullish Crab pattern after producing more than 170% rally:
Formation of an up channel:
Now on the daily chart the price line of ZEC has formed an up channel. And the price action is moving very well within this channel by hitting the support and the resistance of the channel. But this time I am expecting that the priceline will breakdown the support of this channel. There are different reasons behind that let's talk about them.
ZEC is completing the final leg of bullish BAT pattern:
On the same daily chart the price line is forming a BAT pattern. Sofa all the legs are driven perfectly as required for the bullish BAT pattern, therefore I am expecting that the final leg will be formed as per requirement of the this pattern. At this time the price action is at the support of the channel. But in order to complete the final leg the priceline needs to move more down from $37 up to $35. Its mean that for the completion of this bullish BAT it is mandatory for the support of the channel to be broken down. And after completion of the leg from that level as Fibonacci sequence of the BAT pattern the price action of Zcash is supposed to move up.
Different indicators and oscillators are turned bearish:
Now if we see the different indicators and oscillators on the daily chart like the relative strength index (RSI) , moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and momentum indicator then all indicators are turning bearish. RSI is turned bearish the MACD has turned strong bearish and the momentum is turned weak bullish and soon it will be turned strong bearish. These bearish signals by the indicators will also help the price action to complete the final leg of bullish BAT pattern. But again in order to complete the final leg of BAT the priceline will breakdown the support of the channel.
The simple moving averages:
If we see the simple moving averages on the daily chart with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200. Then it can be easily observed that after the strong downside move of Zcash price action in the month of March the price action again turned bullish and broke out the 25, 50 and 200 simple moving averages. But after breaking out all these simple moving averages now the price action is not able to break out the 100 SMA resistance even after several attempts. If we dig it more deeper then we can easily see that the price action has also formed a double top at that 100 simple moving average resistance. this double top formation can produce more bearish rally to the downside. That can break down the 200 SMA as well. And we can have a bounce back from the 50 simple moving average because the simple 50 SMA is at the same level where we have the potential reversal zone of bullish BAT pattern.
The exponential moving averages:
Now I woud like to discuss about the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 in 21. Then it can be easily observed that since the priceline has crossed up these two exponential moving averages the Zcash is using these moving average as a support, moreover the bullish cross between these exponential moving averages in the month of April produced more upward bullish rally. This time the priceline has broke down the EMA 10 and hitting the exponential moving 21. And the EMA 10 is moving down and likely to form a death cross with the EMA 21 soon. If the price action will break down the EMA 21 then we will witness the more downside move.
Support and resistance levels:
During the downside move in the month of March the price action has hit the strong support of $26. And moved up. After that it has broke out the next resistance level at $35. And after re-testing this resistance level as a support the priceline started another upward move and tried to break out the next resistance level at $49. This is the same level where we have the 100 simple moving average resistance level. And we can observe that at this resistance level the price line is forming the same double top as it has formed on the 100 simple moving average resistance. Therefore we can expect that the priceline may re-test the previous resistance at $35 as support. This is the same level where we have the potential reversal zone of bullish BAT pattern.
Formation of falling wedge pattern:
If we switch to long term weekly chart then it can be easily seen that the priceline of ZEC is moving within a falling wedge pattern. And within this pattern whenever the price action has reachedthe support it has started bullish rally to hit the resistance. But this time after hitting the support I am not expecting that it will reach the resistance. From here it may move down for the correction rally. This is very positive sign that the bollinger bands is above the resistance level therefore it will be easy for the price line to breakout the resistance of the falling wedge. And if we place the volume profile on the complete price action moving within this wedge pattern then we can see that we have a very weak interest of the traders below $35. Therefore if the price line will move down from this level then it will be moved up. Because as per volume profile the traders interest is very low below $35 level and in the past history of the this pattern we can easily witness that whenever the price line is moving down below this level then it moves upto the resistance very easily.
The indicators on weekly chart are not synchronized:
Here I am using the combination of three indicators to observe the bullish and bearish momentum. The stochastic, MACD and momentum indicators. If we take a closer look at the chat then it can be easily observed that whenever the price action of Zcash is hitting at the support of the falling wedge pattern and the bollinger bands support as well. After that the stochastic gives bull cross and MACD turns bullish and the momentum also turns bullish then the price line of ZEC starts a powerful bullish rally that leads the price action to reach the resistance level. But this time this the signals of these indicators are not synchronized. After hitting the support the stochastic has given the bull cross the MACD is very strong bullish but the momentum is continuously ignoring the bullish signals by the stochastic and MACD and turning more and more bearish. Therefore we can expect that soon the MACD will be turned bearish and the stochastic will also give the bear cross and the priceline may re-test the previous support level of $35. Here I am not execting as that much bearish move that the price line may hit the support of the wedge.
A very big bullish Gartley pattern on monthly chart:
Now finally I would like to talk about that very big bullish harmonic Gartley pattern that has been formed by the priceline of Zcash on the monthly chart same is like the Bitcoin has formed. But this is more powerful pattern than Bitcoin. Because in recent bullish move the priceline of Bitcoin has reached the sell zone as I have defined on the Bitcoin chart on the other hand if we watch the Gartley pattern that is formed by the Zcash then it is still moving in the potential reversal or buying zone even after the strong bullish move of more than 170%. So its mean that we can expect more powerful bullish move on the long-term that can lead the price line of ZEC to reach the Fibonacci projection of A toD leg of this Gartey pattern, that I have defined as a sell zone on the chart. It is not mandatory that the priceline will be dropped down after hitting the sell zone. If the Zcash will be able to break out this sell zone area then it can lead the price action to hit the $800 that is previous highest price.
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On the short term I am expecting a downside bearish rally as the bearish pattern are appeared and different indicators have given sell signals. But on the long-term Zcash is bullish as it has formed big bullish pattern.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advise, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.