The long term trendline support:
In my previous articles I have revealed that Bitcoin has formed a down trend line on long term weekly chart. This trend line cannot be ignored as the priceline of BTC has so many touches at this level.
The BTC has started moving above this trendline from July 2019 and this time the priceline of Bitcoin is again hitting at the support of this on this trendline. I have placed the volume profile on the complete price action moving above the trendline, now we can examine that the point of control of the volume profile of complete price action moving above this trendline is almost at $10350.
And as discussed earlier in my previous articles we have noticed that POC works as center of gravity for the price action and it pulls back the price action towards itself whether the priceline is moving up or down. And after placing this volume profile on complete price action we can also examine that interest of traders is very love below $7,200 therefore I was expecting that a price action will not touch the support of trendline or if it will hit at the support of the trendline then there are possibilities that the priceline will move up again towards point of control level.
If we see charts back in 2018 to 2019 then it will be revealed that same as like this trend line a downtrend line was formed after the market crash of 2017. The formation of that trendline was started in March 18 and ended in February 19 for almost a year. The point of control of volume profile was at $6500 and the traders interest was very low below $6,000 level. And when the Bitcoin moved down from that level then priceline took a very powerful bullish divergence and moved up by more than 300%.
Weekly 200 SMA a support that is never broken in the history of BTC:
On this long time weekly chart if we see the simple moving averages then it can be seen that the 100 and 200 simple moving averages are always proven as very strong supports for the Bitcoi. The 100 simple moving average is broken down only two times in the history of the Bitcoin once it was broken down in December 2014 after that the priceline of Bitcoin broke out the 100 simple moving average resistance again in December 2015. And second time the BTC broke down the 100 simple moving average in November 2018 and Broke this moving average resistance out in May 2019 again.
On the other side if we see the 200 simple moving averaget then it will be revealed that this moving average is every strong support as it is not broken down ever in the history of the Bitcoin since it is appeared in June 2015. And we can also see that in December 2018 the price action has hit at this support then the price line of BTC consolidated above 200 SMA and moved up with a very powerful bullish rally and achieved more than 300% gains. This time a long bearish candlestick is hitting the 100 simple living average support and also at the 200 SMA support as well. Even BTC is hitting the spike beyond the 200 simple moving average up to $3850 and retraced back above this moving average.
At one side this situation is very critical but on the other side the situation can be very positive because is a support that is not broken in the history of Bitcoin if it will be broken down then it can produce a disastrous situation. Because this support is very long term and once broken down then it can work as a very long term resistances as well. But on the other side if the price line will take a bullish divergence from this 200 simple moving average support then it can be really very powerful rally as we have witnessed from February 19 to June 2019.
Big harmonic move and two strong supports:
Now I want to divert your attention towards the formation of very big bullish harmonic pattern on monthly chart. Bitcoin has formed Gartley pattern and this strong trend has helped the price action of BTC to complete the final leg of this bullish Gartley.
In other words we can say that the Bitcoin needed this strong bearish trend in order to complete the last leg from C to D.
The bearish move was so much strong as we can observe that the Bitcoin has hit the spike even beyond the potential reversal zone but all of a sudden the BTC has be retraced back in the PRZ level of this bullish Gartley pattern.
The potential reversal zone starts from $7217 and the maximum extent of this potential reversal zone is $5424. This is the same level where we have strong support of 200 simple moving average on weekly chart. Therefore at this level we have two very strong supports one is a 200 SMA on weekly chart and other one is the maximum extent of potential reversal zone of this pattern. Therefore this level should be used as stop loss in case of complete canle sticks start closing below this level. Because if this level will be broken down then we can see even more bearish trend.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.