FTX collapsed but why has $ETH still not made new bear market lows?

FTX collapsed but why has $ETH still not made new bear market lows?

By Making Cents | Making Cents | 20 Nov 2022


by Forrest @0xStacker

Here are 12 things that currently propping the market up (for now).

1) ETH is sitting at about 75% below its all time high.

46e8b3ea500e890abc3be2625f9d7f30d1ff709e49d525917c707957579a6870.jpg


2) As @hodlKRYPTONITE pointed out on Twitter, there may be some larger players defending positions here, propping up price to avoid a large liquidation or otherwise adding collateral to their positions.

 

27c84c7ee44a04281347c9bd76d51e79a3780e83ee21e607a9fbf9e381180521.jpg


3) Some funds and investors who lost money in FTX have likely written it off as a loss and dipped into stablecoin reserves to start rebuilding positions.

c17768f9639c5f16959fc107708f90fa64d6ca319a0ea778f57427f65602e75b.jpg


4) The FTX hacker (perhaps SBF himself?) moved most of the drained funds into ETH, becoming the 35th largest ETH holder in the process. This is not insignificant buy pressure on ETH.

a1d6dafef8c6ba00f71ae703868746ee76ee97fb9ed6f39a8f927db2a9a7e653.jpg


5) Post-merge, ETH is now deflationary and had its net issuance reduced by >11,000 ETH per day. That's 11,000 ETH ($13.2M at current prices) per day that miners are not selling to cover electricity costs. This is huge.

54f88aa3d28c6ef1ce0cf74c6d8a9d84c54c665ab211d78edd81713a4541a4ac.jpg


6) The silver lining of this FTX collapse is the excision of a cancerous & manipulative cabal within the crypto space. With FTX out of the picture, there is one less market manipulator in the space. The tumor has been cut out and now the wound can begin the healing process.

8cf89f5aa799d5c758720e1a2424a73c616cbe175e1204c0a380548baad740a9.jpg


7) After the latest CPI print and subsequent pump in equities, it's not unreasonable to think that ETH would be sitting north of $2,000 were it not for the FTX collapse. Strong performance out of the legacy market is likely having some positive effects on crypto.

d69d0e23bb934a90889eb25e1dbfd86884538d0c0f565e4964a55ac06e207dda.jpg


8) Contagion can take time. Insolvencies, liquidations, bankruptcies can all take time to manifest and can be hidden from the public eye for months. Look how long FTX was able to hide.

2cda3413d52b70cf5a20d4ab1205a65452a783bb21c55b7d4def5916d0a2bba9.jpg


9) We're a full year into this bear market. There's a difference in capitulating from the frothy top of a bull market and capitulating from already being down 70% after a full year of bleeding. Smart funds and investors have had plenty of opportunities to de-risk.

78bbc307e67c6cfde632f8224618a19222398d26bec2f93bdf7bd1b1ebe49d83.jpg


10) ETH already took a trip well below $1k this year, which was a massive shake-out event. Many weak hands have already sold. The strong hands who held ETH below $1k earlier this year are probably strong enough to HODL now.

b5d07146dc343ac7911231f0592a4deac2726f4f1a4b501094ec8737073e9a70.jpg


11) On-chain liquidations for ETH do not really come into play in a big way until ~$708. Source: @DefiLlama

9f4a8e21225d122a93d1135040e9e8b2ae02613b4232764345d828962b094f5b.jpg


12) The FTX collapse is endemic to all of crypto, not just ETH. When ETH made its $880 low, there was major FUD around stETH liquidity due to the Celsius, Voyager, and 3AC insolvencies. The stETH crisis was endemic to ETH specifically. This is important. The closer the fire is, the more damage it causes.

7ac9a615b9931f4e138ae890d898e3bc75c8d6b2fbebec8089f201c14818d647.jpg


About Making Cents

Making Cents is the leading social, marketing and education platform built on the VITE network. Get weekly news highlights in the cryptocurrency space by following us on our socials!

Website: https://www.makingcents.xyz
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BeMakingCents
Telegram: https://t.me/bemakingcents
Discord: https://discord.gg/XkNPut8eNT
Publish0x: https://www.publish0x.com/@MakingCents
Wortheum: https://wortheum.news/@makingcents/

How do you rate this article?

25


Making Cents
Making Cents

Making Cents is the leading social, marketing and education platform built on the VITE network. Join our socials to connect, learn and earn! https://twitter.com/BeMakingCents https://discord.gg/ngqt7TXNNQ https://t.me/bemakingcents


Making Cents
Making Cents

Bringing you perspectives in the cryptocurrency space, written by the community for the community!

Publish0x

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.