Market Wrap after Trump's statement of MoU withdrawn

Market Wrap after Trump's statement of MoU withdrawn


Dear Friends, Here is the Market Wrap 08.07.26   Sharp broad selloff as US–Iran conflict drives crude up 6%;   What moved?   The cap-curve told a clear risk-off story: Nifty 50 falling (−2.12%), Nifty Smallcap 100: (-2.24%) while Nifty Midcap 100: (-1.55%). Market breadth was decisively negative — only 698 stocks advanced against 2,631 declines (A/D ratio: 0.265), confirming this was broad-based selloff.   Macro backdrop US President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran effectively over after mutual strikes. Hence the Brent spike to $78.81 (+6.34%) .   Flows & positioning FII cash: net buyer of ₹1,962.8 cr. DII cash: net buyer of ₹790.16 cr. But the derivatives book tells the actual directional story.   Derivatives India VIX spiked 26.04% to 14.68 — a large single-day volatility jump. FII index-futures net short position deepened sharply: from −238,838 contracts yesterday to −268,586 contracts today, an addition of ~29,748 short contracts. Simultaneously, FII index-put net long OI surged by 102,881 contracts to 546,664, while they cut index-call shorts by 94,630. This is an unambiguous hedged/bearish posture in derivatives, running alongside modest cash buying. USD/INR closed at 95.545 (+0.62%) — higher crude import demand for dollars + geopolitical risk-off. The DXY (dollar index) was up only mildly (+0.10% to 101.08). On viewing foreign flows via the currency channel: the 1-year USD/INR forward premium rose 10.25 paise to 273.5 paise (2.86% annualised). US 10-year Treasury: 4.585%, up 6.2 bps due to Crude-driven inflation expectations. The India 10-year G-Sec moved in lockstep: 6.766%, up 7.4 bps. The US–India spread sits at 218 bps.   The Sectoral Moves   The heaviest losses fell where the crude shock bites hardest via two distinct channels: Nifty PSU Bank (−2.72%) and Nifty Bank (−2.51%): partly driven by India's 10-year G-Sec yield rise - PSU banks carry large government bond portfolios — rising yields generate mark-to-market losses. The broader growth/credit-quality concern from higher inflation added to the pressure. Nifty Chemicals (−2.67%) and Nifty FMCG (−2.49%): Crude is both a direct feedstock in specialty chemicals and a key input (packaging, petrochemicals, logistics) for FMCG companies. A 6%+ single-day crude move reprices margins materially for both sectors. Nifty Oil & Gas (−2.23%) and Nifty Auto (−2.23%): Downstream OMCs face margin compression and Autos face demand headwinds from higher fuel prices. The relative outperformers were Nifty Metal (−0.91%) and Nifty Pharma (−0.97%). Metal stocks are partially cushioned by commodity price tailwinds when geopolitics spikes, and pharma benefits from its defensive character and dollar-revenue exposure. Nifty IT (−1.37%) also held above the index average for the same export-revenue reason. Gold: (−2.09%), Silver: (−5.01%). The fall in gold despite a clear geopolitical flare-up is notable. This typically happens when traders liquidate gold positions to cover margin calls elsewhere.   Fingers Crossed again with this dramatic turn around!

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