Impact on crypto if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this may not directly impact crypto because the immediate impact will be on oil and the real economy. However, since crypto has become an alternative for investors, it is possible that crypto will also be affected.

As a first possibility, cryptocurrency could become a destination for some investors, which could cause cryptocurrency prices to rise in the short term due to its role as a digital safe haven alternative. The increase could also stem from investors' fears of inflation and the instability of fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, leading them to shift to cryptocurrency. However, it is important to remember the situation in Russia and Ukraine, where Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise, which could be temporary and highly speculative.

On the other hand, if investor fear is extremely high, the opposite of the first scenario may occur. Investors may withdraw funds from cryptocurrency to shift to the dollar or gold. Additionally, if global interest rates rise, investors may flock out of cryptocurrency investments, potentially leading to a medium-term bearish trend.

In the second point, this will lead to a decline in transaction volume as people become more cautious about trading cryptocurrency. Additionally, this also puts pressure on small-scale projects that are currently underway or about to launch, leaving them reliant solely on hype and momentum.

The final point, or the third point, is also bad news for cryptocurrency, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher mining costs. This creates a negative condition for energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining, as energy prices are expected to rise sharply in the future.

In summary, beyond the anticipation of the bullish phase in 2025 following the Bitcoin halving momentum, the current state of cryptocurrency, along with global conditions—both economically and geopolitically—is increasingly unpredictable, defying actual weather forecasts. This means that the primary basis can only be seen through three scenarios: if tensions escalate or remain high, there could be a short-term closure or bullish trend; however, if a global recession occurs, there could be a prolonged closure, which could be interpreted as a bearish trend in the long term. Lastly, an additional scenario is that if energy prices rise sharply, this would be bad news or negative for energy-intensive mining operations like Bitcoin.