Like I anticipated this has turned into one of my more controversial topics. At the end of the day though it is my belief that both you, the reader, and I want the same thing and that is peace in the Middle East. Beyond the religious significance of the area it also has a rich history that is important to the world as a whole. Some of the sources I will use in this are conversations with different individuals on Capital Hill and people who are well versed in this issue and many like it.
So what has changed since I last wrote?
The biggest development has been the ceasfire agreed to by both sides. I honestly am a little surprised by this given the posturing by the Israeli government and some of the responses from Hamas when Israel tried to ease issues. THe Israeli government previously had made it clear that they would only stop once they were able to complete their operation which I guess was closer to completion then they let on. Hamas on the other hand had a rather unique response to when Israel would open the crossing between the two areas for relief supplies. I personally think it was completely pointless for both times that Israel tried that Hamas responded with bombing the crossing. Your people need supplies and even the slightest amount of relief should have been accepted with open arms not further violence.
What was accomplished?
No matter how you try and spin it Hamas did suffer some huge losses within its command structure. These losses are not going to be easily replaced as some of these individuals were battle harder from the last war between Israel and Hamas in 2014. Hamas also lost more important infrastructure besides just the homes that they lost. Evidence was found that showed that the larger buildings hit were being used for narfarious purposes. Hamas also got caught launching rockets from a block away from a school, hospital, mosque and UN building. On an international stage the diplomats will now be able or have proof of taking this into account into what Israel did.
Hamas claims that they showed Israel that they could dictake change from the strip but honestly it is hard to see this point of view. Israel only stopped because the Iron Dome was so successful in protecting the state from the rockets Hamas sent. While I do not have an exact number I do not see Israel having launched over 4,000 rockets like Hamas did. Israel just has a different system then Hamas and Israel has precision guided missiles which means they do not have to launch as many for the same building to be hit. Hamas was able to keep Israel from launching a full blown ground attack though which was a huge reason for why this was not an even worse mess.
Where does this leave us?
This really remains to be seen. The issue at heart does not appear to have been addressed at all. Within of the first day of this ceasefire Israeli forces clashed with protesters in the very place that kicked off this conflict. Violent clashes occurred again at the Al Aqsa mosque during which the police used stun granades to disperse the protesters. This type of interaction at the same exact place is what led to the inital rocket launches from Hamas at Israel.
Possibly the biggest change and it could have profound impacts on both sides is if the US follows through with its investment and building of new insastruture in Gaza. President Biden said that the money would not go to Hamas to rebuild and that it would be a hands on approach. This could eventually turned down by Hamas because it would allow UN forces including Americans who would be able to see all of the infrastructure as the place is rebuilt. This type of intel would be debilitating to Hamas to hide things and to build new rocket launch areas and missiles. This would also hurt Israel though as it would be extremely hard to bomb a building that was just rebuilt by the US and the outcry would be intense.
One of the biggest things I heard from people this week at work was how only Israel was committing war crimes and how Hamas had done only what it had to. However the sheer numbers of rockets allow destroy that narrative. Each missle Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched was a war crime as they all went toward civilian areas and most importantly were unguided. Guided rockets attacks are not themselves war crimes. This alone puts Hamas at a distinct disadvantage and is followed up with Hamas got caught putting the rocket launches in civilian areas which is also against international law. It is not clear though on the Israeli side as proportional force is the biggest issue however does that mean a country is pentalized for using modern technology to limit civilian casualties? I am not sure there is an answer to this question but this is an important part of this conflict that must be considered. On one side is a technologically sophisticated country and on the other is one with much less tech in use so how does one measure then how much of an attack is either to much or just a persision strike vs widespread destruction.
