There is one question that people investing in Bitcoin and crypto want to know the answer to. When will prices finally go up and ignite the next bull market? While we would all like to claim that we are here for the technology with the aim to help change the world. The truth is that we’re here for the money. Many of us know the world and wealth system are rigged against us. We view Bitcoin and crypto as our own opportunities to finally get ahead in life. To escape the heavy weight of debt, and to no longer be trapped in our 9 to 5 jobs. Finally being able to get a financial cushion, get ahead, and have a chance at retirement.
These are the dreams of most people investing in this market. The great thing is that historically the longer you have been in this market, the greater chance you have of making all of those scenarios come true. The last two years in the crypto market have been a rollercoaster ride of a lifetime. With insolvencies, frauds, and FUD everywhere, if you have been able to survive to this point, you are a warrior. But there are still mental mind battles up ahead.
But when will Bitcoin actually go up again? Let’s discuss the different scenarios.
One of the golden rules in Bitcoin is always remembering that nothing is guaranteed. While there is a slight chance that Bitcoin could go to $100k relatively soon. There is perhaps an even better chance that it could go to zero. You must always remember this fact.
The truth is that the last year has caused extreme damage to the entire market. While prices are much better than many of us would expect after taking into account everything that happened. The real damage was done to the reputation of this market. And even more so, it burned some powerful politicians.
SBF was the 2nd largest donor to the Democratic party in the US. They were caught with their hands in the cookie jar during one of the largest frauds in financial history. These politicians were embarrassed, and have come back with vengeance. This is evident with how the Biden administration has suddenly made crypto enemy number 1. This could take a lot of effort to overcome, and perhaps crypto may never be able to overcome it.
During the Banking Crisis
One of the few bright spots for Bitcoin has been how it reacted to the banking crisis. While financial sectors were panicking, Bitcoin performed exceedingly well. Sometimes it takes an emergency for people to begin to wake up to the problems around them. In this case, it also helped them wake up to why they need Bitcoin. This fact alone will stay in people’s memories.
Many experts thought that the banking crisis may be over, but just this week Wells Fargo began limiting cash withdrawals to only $1,000 due to emergency conditions. This whole situation could be far from over, and you will wish you owned more Bitcoin.
The End of the Year
There is an investing idea that you should “go away in May.” Historically during the summer months stocks, crypto, and other financial assets have slumped during these months. Then recovering toward the end of the year.
We saw this in 2021 when Bitcoin went from $64k in May, down to $28k during the summer. Only to surge back up to $69k in November. During the summer people like to go outside, spend time with their families, and go on vacations. Enjoying life. There is no guarantee, but this exact scenario could be playing out again. Waiting for the Santa rally at the end of the year.
Perhaps the most sacred theory in Bitcoin is that prices always go up after the halving. The Bitcoin halving occurs roughly every 4 years, which cuts in half the Bitcoin mining issuance rate. Leading up to the halving there is often FOMO that causes the price to run up. Then after the halving takes effect, prices go sideways for several months until there is a supply shock toward the end of the year. At which point Bitcoin beings to go parabolic and the next bull market is ignited.
The next halving will happen around May 2024, which is less than 1 year. As difficult as the last two years have been for people in this market, this is of the few things that we have been clinging our hopes to. That the halving will be the saving grace to this market.
Deep into the Future
Finally, the last scenario is that this market has completely changed. That everything that took place in the last two years has caused extreme damage to this market, but it wasn’t a death blow. It will just take a significant amount of time to recover from it.
While many would be disappointed if it takes 3, 4, or 5 years to recover. It might not actually be the worst thing in the world. If we want Bitcoin and crypto to stand the test of time, we need to do better. Build better, behave better, treat each other better, and scale for the future. In the crypto market when prices are soars it becomes too easy to get distracted and nothing is built. The real infrastructure of this market is built during bear markets. An extended bear market could be just what we need.
As for me, I tend to believe it will be a mixture of Bitcoin beginning to recover toward the end of the year, then being propelled even further due to the halving. Either way, I remain incredibly excited about the future of this market, and continue to accumulate.
How about you? When do you think Bitcoin will go up?
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