The most passionate people in crypto all share one trait that is our biggest strength, and also at times our biggest weakness. Our stubbornness. This allows us to maintain our conviction even during the darkest days of crypto. To see how crypto has the power to change the world and has its brightest days ahead. However, this stubbornness also can keep us blinded from the harsh reality.
One of these harsh realities is with the price of Bitcoin and crypto in general. We all have our favorite crypto influencer, analyst, or pundit that has declared their future price predictions. During the last cycle, most of these predictions were claiming that Bitcoin would be ascending to astronomical price levels. That Bitcoin would definitely be hitting price levels of at least $200k. But the truth is that we were seeing predictions for much higher. Some were saying $400k, $500k, and some were declaring that there would be a Bitcoin super cycle that would blow our minds. During that time, the people who were considered to be extremely conservative were saying that BTC would probably reach $100k. But as we have learned, not even the most conservative of those predictions ended up becoming a reality.
During bull cycles, it’s extremely easy for people in the market to get carried away. Believing that the market will go much higher than it actually will. I have been just as guilty about this as everyone else. When we begin feeling this type of FOMO, that is probably when the top of the market is near.
One of the biggest problems we have faced in this industry is when famous people keep giving their huge price predictions with timetables that seem unrealistic. Each year they predict that BTC will hit a price that we would all love to see, but isn’t likely. Some of the biggest culprits of this in the past have been Tim Draper, Max Keiser, and the list goes on. Both of them have predicted that BTC would hit $200k by the end of the year.
Those of you who have followed my writing for a significant period of time will already know how passionate I am about Bitcoin. How I believe it is the future of money, and how high I believe its price will appreciate. However, even with how optimistic I am about the future of Bitcoin; I remain realistic. Bitcoin will do very well in the future, but it won’t reach $200k by the end of the year. It has incredible long-term potential but won’t reach $1 million next year.
The harsh truth in crypto is that all of those price predictions that you have heard over the years are all true. But, they will likely take much longer to become a reality than you wanted or can handle. Not many can handle the stress of living through full bull and bear cycles. Seeing years where their portfolios have dropped by more than 80%. Markets often move at much slower rates than we can handle. Going lower than we expected, and not rising as fast as we would like.
If you are a long-term investor in this market you will do very well. Just don’t get carried away with predictions of how high prices will go in the short term. Unfortunately, no one really knows how this market will turn out. It is risky and we must plan accordingly.
How do you feel about these large price predictions?
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