NOTHING in Crypto is Real

By johnwege | johnwege | 13 Oct 2024


The cryptocurrency market is as divisive as it is volatile. You either love it and believe it is the future. Or, you may believe it is some form of worthless internet money that will go to zero.

I have the unique perspective of believing that both statements have a lot of truth in them.

Let me first say this. I’m a Bitcoiner and have been for several years. I have complete conviction in it and believe it is the future. I’m also convinced that in the near future, we will see Bitcoin take over, causing one of the greatest bull markets we’ve ever seen. Bitcoin will cause the largest transfer of wealth that humans have seen in recent history. I also believe that Bitcoin is arguably one of the only legitimate projects in crypto with a real use case and value.

That brings me to my other controversial opinion. The harsh reality is that 99.9999% of crypto has no future and only exists to make their creators rich.

This means that nearly all crypto isn’t real.

The Downfall of Altcoin Projects

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The longer that you invest in crypto, the easier it is to notice trends that continue to happen.

The largest of those is that retail investors seem to think of the cryptocurrency market as their get-quickly plan, similar to buying lottery tickets. They have seen the stories of people essentially becoming rich overnight by investing in meme coins, NFTs, or low-cap tokens and are hoping to replicate that success.

Investors hoping to get rich isn’t the problem, as that is something that all investors are hoping to achieve in whichever asset class they invest in. However, the problem is that they are hoping to do it at a rapid speed without any care or concern about the actual value of the asset that they’re buying.

When people are investing in “dog coins,” election tokens, or tokens with ironic names with the hope of becoming wealthy, that is when they are setting themselves up for failure. The truth is that most of the projects’ creators are simply trying to find something that will go viral enough to cause the price to soar. Allowing them to have enough exit liquidity to make out like a bandit. Leaving retail buyers as bag holders, drowning in losses.

Crypto investors going full degen into these lottery tickets is nothing new. You could argue it has been around since the dawn of this market. With that said, there is a more recent trend that has been much more concerning to me.

The Crypto Airdrop

One of the big narratives for this cycle was how Layer 2s on Ethereum would change the game. We were about to enter a season of airdrops from these blockchains that would make users of these projects very wealthy.

Projects like StarkNet, zkSync, Scroll, EigenLayer, and Linea were all supposed to be the big next thing. It was heavily implied that heavy users would be amply rewarded, and therefore, people invested years of their time and capital to test out these networks.

However, as many of these projects would finally announce their airdrop, it was revealed how little of a percentage that actual users would be receiving. With some of the projects, such as Eigen, their initial airdrop wouldn’t even be worth the gas fees needed to claim it for many people.

It was a bait and switch.

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For years, these projects “milked” their users, making money hand over fist on transaction fees. Only to give them essentially nothing when the airdrop was finally announced.

This resulted in the market no longer caring about Layer 2 airdrops. Investors quickly woke up to the fact that many of these projects are simply governance tokens and have little to no use case, especially for users with smaller allocations.

Meme tokens and altcoins gem hunting on Ethereum is nothing new. But these Layer 2s were much more well regarded and considered to be what would take Ethereum’s scaling to the next level. Yet, these project creators once again showed everything that they were also simply trying to make as much money as possible, with little regard for actually building out the adoption of their blockchain.

What Sets Bitcoin Apart

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Thankfully, Bitcoin is different.

While other altcoin projects and investors on other chains are attempting to get rich quickly. Bitcoiners are built differently. Instead, they are playing the long game.

Phrases that you will often hear amongst Bitcoiners are “dollar-cost-averaging” or “when in doubt, just zoom out.” They have fully accepted the fact that they won’t become rich with Bitcoin during just one cycle, knowing that it will take multiple cycles. They know that saving their wealth in Bitcoin is the best way to preserve their wealth in the crypto market for the long term.

Bitcoin is the only blockchain that was created without being assigned a value. Initially, it was worthless and had to gain its value naturally. It might not have the flashiest tech or be able to do everything that smart contract blockchains can do. But it knows what it is, and it’s fine with that.

Being the strongest form of money, with a hard cap of 21 million coins. With known inflation, that is cut in half every four years until it is nothing. It is the most decentralized cryptocurrency with the greatest security. There is only one cryptocurrency that you can almost guarantee will not only still be around ten years from now but will still be thriving. Only Bitcoin. Even projects that were thought to be a guarantee ten years from now, such as Ethereum, now have much more uncertainty.

There is nothing that is guaranteed in the cryptocurrency market, not even Bitcoin. But, as your time goes on in this market, you gain a much greater sense of what will make it and what won’t. It will take time, but investors are finally waking up to the fact that nearly everything in this market is a cash grab.

Now that BlackRock and Wall Street are entering the market through ETFs, it could cause everything to change in crypto. This means that projects will no longer all move in unison with Bitcoin since all of the capital is going into BTC through these ETFs. A time is coming when crypto projects will have to have actual value and use cases to appreciate in value. When that moment comes, investors will finally realize that nearly all of crypto isn’t real.

How about you? What are your thoughts on the altcoin market?

 

As always, thank you for reading!

 

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johnwege
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Stay Curious. | Bitcoin | Macro | Business Email: [email protected]


johnwege
johnwege

The Bitcoin Frontier Business Email: [email protected]

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