Throughout cryptocurrency's brief history, there has been one group of influencers that have seen their popularity go through the roof more than any other. Crypto Technical Analysis (TA) influencers. The people who study the charts, and predict where they believe that prices will be heading next. However, they have forgotten the most important thing in the Bitcoin market. Nothing is guaranteed, and Bitcoin is an uncontrollable beast.
However, taking a step back. It makes perfect sense why crypto TA influencers have become some of the most “successful” people in the market. The first is that everyone cares about the price of Bitcoin. The thing they want to know the most is where prices will be heading next. Even when prices have fallen to their bottom, people are still wondering when they will finally begin to recover.
Everyone is wanting to become rich in this market, and that opens them up to extreme risk.
As I mentioned before, Bitcoin is an uncontrollable beast. No one has a clue where its price will be going next. Let alone TA people. The truth is that their sole mission is to make money and their audience is their ticket to wealth. Most of the large TA channels have referral deals set up with the largest trading sites such as ByBit. Whether prices go up or down, they are making money from your trading. They could care less if you make money, lose money, or even get liquidated.
The fact is that Bitcoin has become much more of a macro-related asset as its market cap has increased. Its price is affected by rising interest rates, the weakening or strengthening of the US dollar, money printing, wars breaking out, and global relations. None of which can be predicted through TA.
For example, let’s take a look at the most bearish and bullish events to take place in the Bitcoin market during the last year, and how useful TA would have been in these situations.
The most bearish event without a doubt in the last year was the FTX fraud. Not only did it cause the market to turn into shambles, but it did severe damage to the image of this market. TA never saw this event coming, and couldn’t have predicted it. Right before news of the FTX fraud broke out, the market was rising up. TAs were claiming the bear market was over and $30k was the next target. People who followed this advice and traded with leverage would have been liquidated.
Now let’s move on to the most bullish event that’s happened to Bitcoin during the last year. How well it reacted to the banking crisis. Once again an event that wasn’t predicted by TA. At that time Bitcoin was hovering around $18k, and these influencers were claiming that the price would soon go down to $12k, and maybe even below $10k. However, due to the macro events, Bitcoin’s price shot up to nearly $32k, causing the people who were short to be liquidated.
After you are in the Bitcoin market long enough, you begin to notice two things.
The first is that TA influencers are often complete frauds who have questionable skills and are simply using you to make money. The second is that Bitcoin is unpredictable, and to even try to predict its future will only make you foolish.
How about you? What are your opinions of Bitcoin Technical Analysis?
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