A personal field note from the internet’s “free field”.

Open any social network and you’ll see the same movie: shiny watches, rented cars, screenshots of ‘guaranteed’ profits, and someone telling you that you’re one click away from financial freedom. In crypto, that noise is louder because the technology is real… and the hype is limitless.

It reminds me of another era: door-to-door encyclopedia salesmen. They carried heavy cases, knocked on doors, and delivered a perfectly rehearsed story. Today’s smoke sellers don’t even need the suitcase—they sell the dream from their sofa.

My “80% rule” (a blunt heuristic)

I’m going to be blunt: in my experience, something like 80% of what gets promoted online as an ‘opportunity’ is either (1) misleading, (2) built to extract money from newcomers, or (3) outright fraud. Is it exactly 80%? Of course not—it’s a way to say: assume most offers are noise until proven otherwise.

The good news is the same as the bad news: because so much is smoke, the field is wide open for honest people. Truth stands out.

The “glass of water” lesson

My father had a rough kind of humor. When a salesman arrived, he’d invite him in, offer a glass of water, listen to the pitch… and then say no. And when the man left disappointed, my father would add: ‘At least you got to sit down and drink a glass of water.’

Online, this happens every day. People will take your attention, your time, your hope—then leave you with nothing. Your job is to keep your dignity: take the information, keep what’s useful, and say no without guilt.

How to spot smoke (fast)

• If it promises high returns with low risk, it’s smoke.

• If the message is ‘act now or you’ll miss it’, it’s pressure—classic sales trick.

• If you can’t explain the product in one minute, don’t buy it in one minute.

• If the profit depends on recruiting others, be extremely cautious.

• If the only ‘proof’ is screenshots and hype, it’s smoke.

• If you’re asked to ‘deposit’ funds into someone else’s system, assume worst-case.

• If you don’t control your keys / access / exit, you don’t control the asset.

A rare example of small-but-honest: Publish0x

Here’s something many people don’t understand: honest systems tend to be small and modest. Take Publish0x. You don’t get rich there. You earn a little—slowly. But it’s transparent, it doesn’t need to exaggerate, and precisely because the amounts are small, the incentive to scam is lower.

Sometimes ‘earning a little but sleeping well’ is a better deal than chasing a fortune that exists only inside a smoke seller’s narrative.

Conclusion: build a “bunker” of criteria

Crypto can be useful. The internet can be a gift. But if you walk with closed eyes, someone will sell you smoke. Keep your standards high. Prefer things that create real value, solve real problems, and make life a little better—one small, solid improvement at a time.

Not financial advice. Just a field note from someone who prefers truth over noise.