“The rear view mirror is always more clearer than the windshield.”
No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future.
January 2022 closed as a red month and near its historical red average with a loss of about 16%. Bitcoin had 3 consecutive red months before the month of February brought some love to the market! Surprisingly on its last day of the month the bulls pushed Bitcoin and broke through the $40,000 resistance and went as high as $44,000 before coming down and closing with a green monthly candle at $43,000.
What’s next for Bitcoin in the month of March?
The month of March is typically a good month for stocks. Going back over the last two decades March has been the second strongest performing month for the S&P 500.
NOT for crypto currency though…
Historically the month of March is one of the worst months of the year. Over the past decade seven of the last ten months closed in the red, with Bitcoin losing an average of 13%.
BUT… things could be different this time.
For 3 consecutive months Bitcoin has closed in the red. The last time this happened was in April 2021. Following those 3 red months, Bitcoin exploded over the next 4 months and ultimately made a new all time high in early November 2021. February closed green, maybe March will too.
Investors and traders should be cautious this month (especially with certain world events happening). The months of April, May, November and December have historically been green months, but 2021 decided that they all would be red last year. And March last year was green! Maybe Bitcoin will get lucky again this year...
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has been bouncing between “Extreme Fear” and “Fear”… it is currently at “Extreme Fear.”
During the first week of March the Bitcoin bulls couldn’t hold onto the momentum that February’s ending candle created. Just one day later Bitcoin rejected the resistance and the bears took the price back down below the $40,000 support and it is now testing the $38,000 support once again.
This second week of March was just as volatile as the first week of March with Bitcoin pushing up to $42,500 one day, and then plunging back down to the $38,000 support line the next day. The Bitcoin bears broke this critical support just as the weekly close was coming to an end. Bitcoin will once again be retesting the $36,000-37,000 zone. What I though initially was a boring sideways week with Bitcoin forming higher lows and lower highs now turned into a breakout to the downside…
Hopefully this is a takeout and Bitcoin will rise back into this triangle and continue to remove sideways until it breaks through the above resistance and confirm a reversal…
If not… then more downside this next week
Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*