“To understand what is coming at you, you need to understand what happened before you.”
No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future.
January 2022 closed as a red month and near its historical red average with a loss of about 16%. Bitcoin had 3 consecutive red months before the month of February finally brought some love to the market! Surprisingly, both February and March have been leading the Bitcoin bulls on a run!
What’s next for Bitcoin in the month of April?
The month of April is considered to be one of the best months for stocks. Going back over the last three decades April has been the strongest performing month for the S&P 500. This could have something to do with tax returns and dividend pay outs… whatever the case there is usually a lot of money flowing around to investors.
What about the crypto market? Historically the month of April is one of the best months of the year for Bitcoin. Over the past decade seven of the last ten months closed as green candles, with Bitcoin seeing a monthly average increase of about 25%!
BUT… things could be different this time. Look no further than the month of March which is historically one of the worst months for Bitcoin and yet it closed as a green candle this year! And last year in 2021 the month of April closed as a red month near it’s historical monthly average of -2%.
For 3 consecutive months Bitcoin has closed in the red. The last time this happened was in April 2021. Following those 3 red months, Bitcoin exploded over the next 4 months and ultimately made a new all time high in early November 2021. February closed green, March closed green… is history repeating itself? Will April and May close green and take Bitcoin to higher highs?
As always, investors and traders should be cautious this month (especially with certain world events happening). The months of April, May, November and December have historically been green months, but 2021 decided that they all would be red last year.
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has been bouncing between “Neutral” and “Fear”… it is currently at “Fear.”
During the first few days of the month of April Bitcoin made a healthy retrace from $48,000 back down to the $44,600 resistance line it had been struggling to breakthrough and flipped it into support! At the time Bitcoin seemed to be following my rising trend line…
The first week of April closed and the Bitcoin bears are back for blood. I personally expected the bulls to take over that week and push towards $50,000. I was wrong. The week is now closing red and is the second red week after the bulls gained some excellent ground in the month of March. The bears broke down through the rising trend line I had drawn and has even now crashed through previous support lines as well, making a steep retrace below the $44,000 zone and all the way down to the $42,000 area! If this support is lost then we will likely see $40,000 and possibly even a retest of $38,000.
This is exactly what Bitcoin did during the third week of April. Bitcoin dropped from $42,000 and went as low as $39,000. It’s been a rather boring seven days for the king of cryptocurrency as there has been very low volume in the market for the holiday week. Bitcoin has been ranging between $39,000 to $41,500.
What do we expect next week for Bitcoin? On the higher timeframes it appears that Bitcoin is bouncing in this rising channel. Bitcoin could very well bounce from the $40,000 zone and make its way back up towards $50,000 in the next few weeks.
The last time Bitcoin closed with three consecutive red weeks was in the month of February. What followed was an explosive next few days which ended up in February closing as a green month, Bitcoin then reached the top of the rising channel in March.
I am bullish on Bitcoin, and while I predicted last month that March would close red, I believe that in the bigger picture Bitcoin would continue to higher highs in the coming months.
There is still the possibility that Bitcoin could go even lower down to $37,000 or even down to $34,000. Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*