The release of the January 2022 inflation figures in America had caused the Bitcoin price to reject resistance at $45.5K again. The fact that the inflation figures were slightly worse than expected by experts was enough to send many investors into a panic, as was the announcement of a special Fed meeting.

However, there was talk of inflation at 7.5%, instead of the expected 7.2%. Not enough to change the face of the market in my opinion. However, this caused another drop in the price of Bitcoin and most financial markets. The price of Bitcoin came to test support around $41K.

The good news is that the price of Bitcoin has just rebounded from that support, as its price is now around $44.2K as I write this. This is a good thing because, after a Bull Flag breakout like the one we witnessed in early February 2022, a retest is needed to get confirmation as I explained in the article on the 11 main chart patterns to know to better anticipate Bitcoin price movements:

After the breakout of such a Bull Flag, traders will have been careful to put in stop-loss orders, while long-term investors may have simply enjoyed buying the dip.

Despite what we are currently witnessing, many people still believe that a violent Bear Market is imminent. This continues to remind me of the Disbelief phase of the psychology of a market cycle as explained on February 5, 2022, when the price of Bitcoin made its comeback above $40K:

Bear Market proponents think it is more like the Anger or Depression phase. The coming weeks and months will tell who was right about this.

If my hypothesis is correct, then things could continue to move quietly for some time for the price of Bitcoin, before a much stronger acceleration afterward. A chart offered by market analyst Crypto5max on Twitter shows us something interesting at the on-chain level:

The supply of Bitcoin is now mostly held by Long-Term HODLers (LTH). The two previous times this happened with a bullish divergence in the price of Bitcoin, we then saw a very sharp increase in its price afterward.

So I still don't believe in the hypothesis of an imminent Bear Market, but rather I see the current situation as a long consolidation phase of the market between $30K and $60K. The Bitcoin price will then go much higher before reaching the top of this cycle. A major bullish wave is in store as the Whales continue to accumulate more BTC now. They will begin to release it as demand from retail investors increases in the coming weeks and months.

Another interesting point to note here is that generally, we can see more and more Bearish news from players who like to manipulate the price of Bitcoin when the Bottom has been reached or is very close. For example, we saw JPMorgan publish a report on February 8, 2022, saying that the true price of Bitcoin was $38K. A way to keep the pressure on with FUD in my opinion. You must not get caught up in these manipulative maneuvers, and taking a long-term view is the key.

The current negative news cycle is playing havoc with the S&P 500 which has been on a downtrend since its ATH hit on January 4, 2022:

Nevertheless, investors with a long term view of things are not wrong, and they are increasing their positions now as shown in this chart where we see that while dumb money is selling out of fear, the smart money is buying the dip on the S&P 500:

We can also see that the percentage of net put value traded to market cap is getting higher and higher:

Smart investors are not buying this theory of a coming crash.

The other big news that is putting downward pressure on the markets is the situation in Ukraine where Russia is said to be about to attack. American authorities have even gone so far as to say that Russia will attack Ukraine on Wednesday, February 16, 2022. What an incredible precision!

Finally, it seems that Vladimir Putin has other plans for this Wednesday since he has just announced the withdrawal of 10,000 men from the military contingent deployed along the Ukrainian border. This does not mean that Russia will not attack Ukraine in the end, but it does mean that the situation is much more complex than it seems and that we should not be fooled by the current propaganda war.

Moreover, if you have the chance to talk to people living in Ukraine or Russia, you will see that their vision of the urgency of the situation is different from that of the Americans and Europeans. In their eyes, a Russian invasion is not such an imminent threat. So you have to take a step back and ask yourself why this propaganda war is happening right now.

This video by Gregory Mannarino will give you important keys to better understand the situation:

I have to say that I share his opinion. Greg is a thought leader who puts forward the real drivers of the market while not hesitating to denounce the flaws of the current monetary and financial system. There is always something to learn from what he says.

This threat of war is just another reason to justify more money printing by central banks like the Fed. As you know, money is the lifeblood of war. Without an infinite amount of money, it becomes impossible to wage infinite wars.

Remember what already happened in February 2014 when Russia was about to take over Crimea:

Everyone thought the market would crash. And then the market kept taking off anyway.

You have to wonder what the point of the Fed continuing to print fiat money out of thin air is in the current situation. Well, to strengthen its power of course! The more money it prints, the more money nations will owe it, and the more powerful it will be. Giant bubbles will continue to inflate on all markets of course.

Sooner or later, these bubbles will burst, and that's when you need to have made sure that you invest in assets that act as hedges to protect yourself from the bursting of these bubbles. That's where Bitcoin has a huge role to play even if you are not a Bitcoin fan.

So the stars seem to be lining up perfectly for the price of Bitcoin to rise much higher in the coming months. While the correction may not be over yet, and we can't predict the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia situation, one thing is certain in my opinion: the price of Bitcoin is going to go much higher this year, and it's only a matter of time before its price reaches $100K.

For Bitcoin HODLers, the best is yet to come. Be patient.

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