Expectations vs. Reality – You Have To Accept the Way the Bitcoin Price Is Progressing.

By ssaurel | In Bitcoin We Trust | 30 Dec 2021


Bitcoin will reach $100K by the end of 2021.

In the middle of 2020, a few days after the third Halving of Bitcoin, I still remember making this bold prediction in one of my articles. It is always tricky to make this kind of prediction because when you are wrong, which happens very frequently, many people come to blame you for the lack of accuracy of your predictions.

As I always repeat, it is only my opinion. Nothing more. As I don't have a crystal ball at my disposal, I can't give you any guarantee. Simply share my opinion. It is up to you to integrate this into your thought process before making your own decisions.

At that time, the price of Bitcoin was between $9K and $10K, and nothing seemed to be happening. Many were even beginning to find Bitcoin boring. As July 2020 began, I urged my readers not to confuse the signal with the noise:

https://inbitcoinwetrust.substack.com/p/noise-vs-signal-in-bitcoin-world

It is essential to focus on what matters about Bitcoin

As I explained at the time, it is essential to learn to focus on what matters for Bitcoin. Its short-term price can indeed be completely out of line with the fundamentals. At the time, this was already the case. All the on-chain data showed that the revolution was moving in the right direction. The effects of Halving on the price of Bitcoin were not felt, and that was quite normal.

All summer long, Bitcoin stayed in that $10K range. Some people took the opportunity to accumulate more and learn more about Bitcoin. Others made the mistake of leaving this world to look for more “exciting” assets.

Still, it's a good thing that Bitcoin is a boring asset from time to time. This is part of the three major market phases that you need to learn to master. Use these moments to build up your knowledge and accumulate more BTC for later.

This advice has always worked so far and will continue to do so in my humble opinion.

The forecasts remain only expectations that are always confronted with the reality

To take advantage of this, you have to accept the way the price of Bitcoin is progressing. There are expectations on the one hand, and reality on the other. At the time of Bitcoin's third Halving in May 2020, the expectations of new investors were high. They all thought that the supply shock would push the price of Bitcoin straight to the moon.

This did not happen. Some were able to accept the reality. They were then rewarded when the Bitcoin Bull Market started in late 2020.

As the Evergrande FUD spread through the markets and sent the price of Bitcoin plummeting in September 2021, I was still telling you how optimistic I was that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100K by the end of the year. I suspected that this FUD would eventually disappear once it was priced in by investors.

When the price of Bitcoin reached $69K on November 10, 2021, everything was well in line with my expectations. The $75K-$80K area by the end of November 2021, and then the surge to $100K. And then nothing happened as expected. My expectations and those of many others were disappointed. Reality took over.

If you are not able to accept that reality is very often different from expectations, then you have the wrong vision of Bitcoin

A leverage flush occurred on the night of December 3 to 4, 2021, and the price of Bitcoin hit a low of around $42K. Today we are at a price of around $49K, while the price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since that episode. Its price is between $46k and $52K, with several big questions on everyone's mind:

  • Who will give in first? The Bears or the Bulls?

  • When the breakout happens, what will be the next trend for the price of Bitcoin?

This is the current reality. Many are panicking that we are in a Bear Market. This is not my feeling. My belief is reinforced by the on-chain data that I follow closely. Whales are steadily adding to their positions, while BTC reserves on the exchanges have just hit a 4-year low. Also, miners are not selling their BTC reserves.

This is one of the many signs that suggest to me that this Bull Market is not over. But again, these are expectations on my part. These expectations will have to be confronted with reality. The $100K will not be reached by the end of 2021. Always this reality that took precedence over expectations.

When this happens, and it happens all the time in a free market like Bitcoin, you just have to accept it. Analyze the situation, and move on. Will the price of Bitcoin not reach $100K by the end of 2021? If you can't handle that reality, you're probably not in this world with the right vision.

Accept the reality to take advantage of it

Bitcoin is an incredible monetary revolution that will take time. If you want to take full advantage of Bitcoin, you need to be able to commit to a minimum of 5 to 10 years. Those who can will be greatly rewarded. The others will be constantly in difficulty when confronted with the clash between expectations and reality.

The reality of the Bitcoin price is that it moves in successive upward waves interspersed with more or less pronounced corrections. As the only truly free market in the world, the price of Bitcoin depends on at least 8 essential factors that you need to learn about. The more you know about these factors, the better you'll be able to react when the volatility of its price causes the market to panic.

For it is in those moments when reality destroys the perhaps over-optimistic expectations of others that new opportunities are created. It is up to you to take advantage of them.


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ssaurel
ssaurel Verified Member

Entrepreneur / Developer / Blogger / Author.


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