Staying Disciplined in a Bull Market

By bengy | Idle Musings | 3 Nov 2021


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In a rampaging bull market, it can be quite difficult to stick to discipline and stick to your sale targets. The temptation is there, just hold on just a little bit longer... the price will always keep going up, and you can't lose! Well... that is a touch of the greed talking there!

That is why I've always formed plans for an orderly selling of my crypto stash at certain trigger points. Either my portfolio hits a certain amount, or a particular crypto hits a certain target and then I will sell a portion. Of course, given that I believe in the long-term vision of many of these projects I will keep much of it still in crypto... but it doesn't hurt to cash out 5-10% at regular preset intervals (depending on how tight your intervals are!).

... and of course, the best time to set those targets is when the market is down. During those times, you are more rational about the sale targets that you set. The only tricky bit is convincing your future self to be disciplined and stick to those targets.

In the past, my portfolio has triggered a few sale points... and I've dutifully taken out profits in order to fund more traditional investments in superannuation or to hold in reserve for a crypto market crash or just a rainy day fund. When I do make the take profit sales, I make sure to keep a good record of it (not for taxes, as we don't have that type of taxation here in Netherlands... but Australia will be a different story!), in case I get the opportunity to buy back in after a crash.

However, in the last few months, the next total trigger has been a bit elusive.... my fund touches over the sale point, and then ducks below... on the rare occasion that I've managed get something to exchange and then sell it, well.. it has crashed back under again! Which meant that I just took the opportunity to re-purchase the sold crypto and reset the triggers. It has been a bit frustrating... but on the other hand, I guess this is what day traders do for a living... thankfully, I'm not ever counting on the volatility, so if I just see that it has dropped significantly under the sale price, I just market purchase back in with a small increase in holding whilst keeping some of the difference in the stablecoin.

These last couple of days has seen a sustained upwards trend... and my trigger point has been well and truly passed, and it doesn't seem likely that it will fall below it again (famous last words...). So the time has come to stick to discipline and sell the amounts that I had decided upon so far in the past.

Interestingly enough, I still need to fight that inner greed demon that tells me to just hold on a little bit longer. However, my rational self tells me... just selling 5 percent right now is going to be a good hedging option in case everything crashes. I don't think it will crash... but that isn't the point of hedging! Plus, selling 5 percent will mean that I still hold 95 percent for the future (until the next sale point!).... so, more than enough to still remain happy if things keep trending upwards.

... and I think therein lies the strength of all of this. Decide well beforehand... what will make you happy and content. When you have reached that point, do it. It is a lesson that I had learnt from a friend that had cashed out in the last bull run to buy an awesome house in cash... of course, at that time, the bank was a bit suspicious. At that point, he told me... that it was better to know what you want, and when you get to that point, just achieve what you wanted. It allows you stop playing the nervous volatility game, the uncertainty of the daily ups and downs. It is a long term view... and when you cash out what you wanted and needed that would make you happy/content, then there isn't any point wishing for more!

It is a nice way to live and to survive in this world of flexing and FOMO. It really allows you to tune out all the endless talk about money and numbers... and wondering if you are doing better, or could be doing better. It frees you from that slavery to always checking your portfolio... and it allows you to just live out your life... perhaps you will win the lottery, perhaps not... but your life shouldn't be a misery whilst waiting for the draw!

... so, it is time for me to let go of my attachment to some meaningless numbers! And to turn them into something that will make me happy! It is hard to do... but if I stick to my discipline, I will be more content for doing it!

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bengy
bengy

I am a Musician (Violinist/Violist) specialising in Early Music living in The Netherlands. I have a background in Mathematics and Physics due to an earlier tertiary level study... and so, I'm still quite interested in Science and Technology related stuff!


Idle Musings
Idle Musings

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