Cindicator: 2020 price predictions (BTC, ETH and DeFi)

By bengy | Idle Musings | 8 Feb 2020




Image from Google Play store, press kit for Cindicator


It's been a while since I've made a Cindicator post... but I've still been plugging along with the predictions and getting myself a little drip of CND tokens to convert to BTC/ETH/BNB along the way as well (speaking of which, I think I forgot to cash out the last month's batch!).

Anyway, some of the questions are starting to get really quite involved... especially on the traditional money markets side of things. It's a bit trickier to answer them, as the refer to the LONG and SHORT of very specific asset classes and futures... and unfortunately, the only information on those are huge spreadsheets that aren't in a graphical form. Well, it isn't worth my time to try and analyse such raw data... so, I have had to skip those.

Anyway, this last week... these really quite interesting long term forecast questions popped up in the app! It's a nice sort of way to get the general sentiment about the year ahead...




This is a nice easy start to the string of questions. Yes, definitely I put this one at 100%... a touch over a month into the year and we are looking at trying to cross 10,000 USDT. So, this one is definitely in the realms of possibility, and quite even almost guaranteed (I think...).




This would be awesome... but let's be a little bit realistic. I think that getting towards 50,000 USDT would already be a bit of a stretch, so I don't think that this has any chance of happening this year. 0% from my prediction.




I do think that this could be on the cards for this year. Of course, we are still a long way out from this... but the confluence of a number of on-chain events, various crypto projects starting to reach a viable product and possible real world collapses could push it easily to this level. I did stake this to be a 100% possibility.




I don't think that we are going to see a low of less that 3,350 USDT this year. Unless the Bitcoin network loses miner support for some reason (a more profitable chain taking dominance?), I do think that the development and more refined rollout of Lightning to support general daily use are positive things for Bitcoin. There is some danger though... I do think that Bitcoin holds most of it's power with the network hash rate and volume (orders of magnitude more than anything else) and that will be hard to surpass... however, it's principal use case is as a crypto reserve currency, and if that use case goes away, it could be undermined. Except that it does have the greatest volume and hashrate...




I was really torn about this... it could be possible. But in the end, I think we will fall short of this target this particular year.




Haha... NO.




Ethereum is the principal contributor to the value of locked DeFi.... 5 billion USD would mean a roughly 5-10 times increase on what is currently there. It is possible through just the appreciation of the ETH token... but 5-10x would mean that it would be hitting all time highs again... well, I guess this all hinges on whether or not the roll out of ETH 2.0 is successful and timely.




Nope... I really don't think that this is going to happen. Half a billion dollars... most of the deals at the moment seem to be in the order of tens of millions. Half a billion would require something really groundbreaking... or maybe Apple just has to write off some tax losses?




I'm really going to say no. I think at this stage... a new network that launches now will have a gigantic uphill battle. This isn't to say that something that launches in 2020 will achieve long-term dominance... but in less than one year? NO.



Originally Published on my STEEM blog

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I am a Musician (Violinist/Violist) specialising in Early Music living in The Netherlands. I have a background in Mathematics and Physics due to an earlier tertiary level study... and so, I'm still quite interested in Science and Technology related stuff!

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