$71,000 BTC and not much excitement in the market. I guess this is why some analysts are calling the current phase we're in as the "climbing the wall of worry" phase, where although markets are up significantly since their bottom, the majority are still doubtful. Some of us are in the hope phase, but the majority are still in disbelief.
As mentioned in a previous post, I believe that if it weren't for GBTC offloading so much BTC, the majority of which probably ended up in other Bitcoin ETFs (hence the not so harsh correction), we would be way over $100,000 by now. Just an opinion...
March 18 marked the highest number in BTC offloading conducted by GBTC with 642 coins, and if you look at Bitcoin's graph, you'll see that on the same date, it corrected heavily from $66,000 to $61,000. Some were waiting for the magical $58,000 to be hit, but it didn't happen, and if you ask me, we will probably never see BTC at that level. EVER...
Yesterday, we had another record broken by GBTC with only 18 BTC in outflows since the mass exodus that occurred after the ETFs got approved. As you can see for yourself, BTC performed pretty decently yesterday, which means that ETFs and probably other large investors are accumulating, and when GBTC is taking it easy, the price can have a noteworthy uprise.
How much BTC is there left in the pipes of GBTC? I have no clue, but I bet there's someone tracking that data. I do know for sure that the Bitcoin halving will happen in eight days from now, and we will have a supply shock for sure.
Bitcoin miners are depleting their coin stashes, possibly to ensure the sustainability of operations in the face of the impending halving of per-block rewards from April 20.
The number of bitcoin held by miners, which receive the coins in return for validating transactions in the blockchain block, declined to 1.794 million BTC this week, the lowest since early 2021, according to data source CoinMetrics.
The so-called miner balance has fallen by 27,000 since November, implying steady selling in the months leading up to the quadrennial mining reward halving. The pivotal event is set to reduce the per-block BTC emission to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
source
I guess miners won't be as inclined anymore to sell so hard after the halving, and that, coupled with shrinking supply for GBTC, FOMO coming in from both spot ETFs and retail investors accustomed to post-halving rallies, guarantees a $100,000 by mid-summer, probably even sooner.
"Hong Kong regulators are likely to approve the first set of applications for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) next week, making it possible that the products could be ready to start trading in April," Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter.
Australia and Hong Kong are the two jurisdictions that could become the first in Asia to offer spot bitcoin ETFs, with Singapore and the UAE not reflecting immediacy just yet.
Hong Kong's regulators have sped up the approval process, Reuters said, citing one of the people.
source
What a coincidence... We have China (actually Hong Kong 😉) betting on Bitcoin as of next week (the halving week). What could "go wrong"?
China has plenty of deep pockets who are not willing to bet on the Chinese yuan. The real estate market in China is messed up; most of you have probably read the news about it several months ago and at least once heard about Evergrande. For a while, the Chinese have piled into GOLD ETFs, but that's no longer an option.
The Chinese government sees all of this (they ain't blind), and they know money may leave the country for foreign assets. Thus, they have to keep it inside the fence, but they won't allow all the common folk to have exposure to Bitcoin, only the deep pockets, hence the ETF approvals for Hong Kong.
Imagine if China were to unban Bitcoin mining again...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
