PlanB's S2F model has probably been the biggest deception I have had in my five years in crypto. This thing made so much sense and gave so much meaning to the halving cycles and the models created around it, that it literally became like a crypto messiah to me.
$288k BTC had to happen and not just PlanB was pointing at it. Many other models and charts "were saying" we're getting there, but we actually didn't. $69,000 was the ceiling for the 2021 bull run and here we are now...
We're in the middle of a bear market that not many were expecting and feeling like it's going to last forever. It won't. At some point, sooner or later, things are going to change and the crypto market will once again enter bullish territories. We are not yet there, though...
CT is full of specialists, their models, charts, and narratives make so much sense when looking for confirmation biases that are making it so hard not to follow any of these guys and fall for their narratives. At the end of the day, the only experience you should be searching for should be your own experience.
Most of the lessons I learned in crypto are earned through time spent in the market and money wasted on poor strategies that most of the time were borrowed and doomed to fail. So, in a world of crypto specialists, what should we know?
Control your emotions. I'd say this one is one of the main pillars of creating yourself the well-deserved and long-time-awaited abundance in crypto. FUD, FOMO, excessive HODLing. These are all unproductive emotions that won't make me, you, or anyone else an ACE in crypto.
Cycles rule the world of crypto. No matter how much I wanted to believe in the super cycle theory and tried to cement in my brain the idea that BTC will go above $100,000 in 2021, the cruel reality is that something like 1.5 years after the halving the bubble usually deflates, no matter the price BTC is at.
That also applies to the next proper bull market that will commence imo sometime near the halving in 2024. There's plenty of time left to accumulate and there's no room for FOMO. There won't be probably any profit-taking time in the next year or so either...
It's not everything about Bitcoin, alts do matter, too. I hate maximalism. I am not a Bitcoin or a Hive maxi. I believe in hype, utility, diversification, and general abundance. What do you mean about believing in hype, sir? I'm pointing at DOGE, SHIB, and any other similar crap that will emerge in the future and become a money-making coin.
We're far away from having a fundamentals-driven market for crypto, thus it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a tiny bag of DOGE, SHIB, or even SUZUME( ;) @trumpman). Crypto is still a wild west, so expect rug pulls, defaults, LUNAs, and more to happen... We're not living in a fairy tale here. The strongest survive...
Self custody should be a priority for everyone in crypto. No matter how wild shit can turn, ownership of your coins is a must. Trust no exchange or "guaranteed money-making project" to be in charge of your crypto. Keep your HIVE powered up and your other coins in a damn wallet where you have the keys for it. It's that simple.
80%-90% corrections of the ATH are sure buys. I know that from my own experience. Yes, certain coins can get as low as 99% from their previous ATH, but I'd say an 80%-90% correction is a safe deal that doesn't make you catch any falling knife, but neither does involve any FOMO.
Last but not least, what I would emphasize a lot on in order to be sailing the crypto ocean with your bags safe is to cut out the noise. Don't overcomplicate, don't over strategies, don't get greedy or fearful, and instantly unfollow or block anyone that starts talking shit or fantasizing. Oh and don't take any word of advice from me, I'm bad at making money in crypto...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
