Not too often has it happened to me that I was the right man at the right time in the right place, but when it does, it feels like there's a superior force to us humans, playing with the puzzle pieces of our lives. Life is not just about waiting for that perfect moment or for "the deity" to make things happen. Sometimes, you need to create good times.
Bitcoin is teetering on the edge once again, and who knows where it will come to a halt in this fall. $28,000? $25,000? We'll have to wait and see; we don't have any power over the unknown outcome. Nevertheless, as I've made clear in several of my recent #threads, I remain bullish on Bitcoin and crypto, and I've been bullish for a few good months.
While I may not have called the bottom for the past bear market or nailed the peak of the 2021 bull market, I believe that the absolute bottom for BTC was hit back in November 2022, one year after its peak, once again showing Bitcoin's price action rhyming with its past performance.
Seeing the lil' pumps of DOGE and SHIB as of late and knowing that either ETH or DOGE has been the head of the army for many altcoin fights(seasons) over the years, I would be inclined to say that while BTC might chop lower for a while, altcoins might perform well in the next few months. However, I might be biased because I'm all in on alts, and I hold both DOGE and SHIB.
Some say that August and September are usually dull months for crypto, and we should expect October to push the prices up, but at the end of the day, who actually knows anything for sure in this market? Let me tell you what I know for sure, though.
In the past bull market cycle, I was following quite a few crypto influencers, most of them technical analysts with all sorts of charts to back their words, unlike myself, who's mostly sharing opinions rather than facts. These guys were throwing price targets for BTC's peak north of $150,000. Some even went so far as to say we should expect a $250,000 BTC by the end of 2021 - beginning of 2022.
Then there was Willy Woo with his super cycle theory, which confused me a lot, and this is how I managed to wreck my portfolio once again, missing the opportunity to make decent profits during this particular bull market. What happened? Well, it's pretty simple...
Instead of focusing on timing and time-related price performance for Bitcoin, I was actually "chasing price targets," and thus, I ended up riding the wave all the way up and down again. My strategy back then was to start dumping my coins once BTC reached above $100,000.
That was a really bad strategy, and for this cycle, I'm going to have a new one. Instead of waiting for bozo's price predictions to come true, I will be focusing on the time spent in the market with my bags full. 1.5 years after the halving is usually the time period when the crypto bubble pops. That's when one should consider DCA-ing out of the market, rather than focusing on price targets.
I do have some DCA strategies for exiting the markets, meaning that if certain coins reach some of my well-established levels, I will dump them, whether it's in one month or one year from now. But if my price targets don't happen, I'm dumping everything anyway sometime in mid-end of 2025. That's when I believe we should see the market peak.
I don't know how high BTC will have gotten to at that time, but I sure know that it has never continued its uprise longer than 1.5 years after its halving. Setting an exact exit point creates a personal attachment to such an exit point, which can blind us in front of the "time reality," a metric that is telling a different story.
No matter the news and events preceding the bubble burst or the absolute bottom in crypto cycles, timing and cyclicity reign supreme. In 2022, we had LUNA and FTX; in 2025, we might have another catalyst to "scare the market," but you can be sure that BTC will always peak one and a half years after its halving. This is my mantra for the next couple of years ahead. What's yours?
Thanks for your attention, Adrian