It seems like lately almost everyone is trying to transform some crypto, mainly Bitcoin, into a global payment network. Until about three years ago, BTC was considered a scam, a Ponzi scheme, a surefire way to lose all your money. Suddenly, Elon Musk hinted at making X the global payment system (cough DOGE), and former PayPal CEO David Marcus, Co-Founder, and CEO of Lightspark, is exploring ways to leverage the lightning network to make Bitcoin the global payment system network.
We are witnessing significant shifts happening in the crypto space. In the latest news, I'd also like to mention that Metamask now supports "unwrapped Bitcoin," and there are various native token swaps between coins like Bitcoin, DOGE, LTC, and others conducted on the Thorchain. Some have the vision to see these developments, while others choose to ignore them.
I have no intention of disregarding any technical analyst with this post. Still, it's often easy to spot Bitcoin maximalism where it exists, and today, I observed a lot of that in one of Jason Pizzino's tweets.
I came across him through one of Alessio Rastani's videos, a talented technical analyst I've been following on YouTube for a while. I have to say that I admire Jason's work. He is straightforward and confident in his analysis, covering SPX, BTC, and real estate. However, he seems to be off the mark on this one.
I recognize Bitcoin maximalism when I see it, and I've stated and will reiterate my disagreement with such maximalism, no matter who propagates it. In this case, I'm referring to Jason Pizzino. Unfortunately, he's quite off the mark when it comes to altcoins, and regrettably, many of his followers are falling into the trap of becoming Bitcoin maximalists based on his opinions.
The biggest mistake any crypto investor can make is to base their investments on the words of various crypto gurus and "TA experts." I've been there, and I've done that. I held 588,000 DOGE in my portfolio back in 2019 and sold them all because someone claimed that coins without fundamentals comparable to Bitcoin's would no longer perform well in the next bull market.
In 2021, BTC did a 10x, while DOGE skyrocketed by a staggering 350x. Similar cases apply to many other altcoins out there. That doesn't mean every altcoin will outperform Bitcoin by a large margin this bull market. However, you can be sure that old projects from 2020/21 and even earlier will perform quite well, and some will surpass BTC.
There's some truth in Jason's words because, over time, some projects will undoubtedly fade away. Choosing BTC over altcoins may be a safer bet, but in terms of return on investment, I believe we're not yet at the stage where most altcoins won't yield better returns than Bitcoin.
I've heard this narrative countless times before, and I've seen the exact opposite happen. I don't buy into Jason's perspective on this matter because I know the types of participants we have in this crypto space. The masses will once again speculate on all sorts of coins, euphoria will turn the market into a circus, and we will, once more, see many altcoins outperform Bitcoin on the USD pairs.
It's true that during bear markets, holding BTC is safer than holding altcoins. But once we enter the parabolic phase, holding Bitcoin is no longer as profitable.
I won't disregard every future opinion Jason may have based on this tweet. Still, I've encountered this narrative so many times that I'm no longer falling for it. We already have failing coins like NXT, a cryptocurrency that significantly impacted my portfolio in 2018, which was indeed a red flag. It's the kind of crypto that Garry Gensler likes to refer to when discussing crypto. On the other hand, we also have successful projects in this market.
AI coins were heavily promoted in the previous bear market, and most of them have performed quite well over the past year. Many of these projects are from 2020/21, some even older. In my opinion, they'll perform well this bull market due to the recent hype surrounding AI. Meme coins will also do well because the crypto market has to maintain its fun factor.
I don't believe that generalizing an investment category is productive in any way. Long-term Bitcoin is certainly the safest bet, along with ETH and a few others. However, for those who can analyze the numbers and connect the dots, many altcoin projects, both new and old, offer significant profit potential.
The most crucial thing, in my opinion, is to construct your portfolio based on your own conclusions. Whether you win or lose, there will always be lessons to be learned. I've lost substantial amounts of money in crypto, and I think such experiences have helped educate me as an investor. Failure, even if you perform well for a while, will eventually teach you that your education is lacking. Over the years, I've also learned that maximalism is toxic and not an option for me.
I'm not advising anyone to go all-in on altcoins, but I believe many altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in this bull cycle, both new and old projects.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
