The vibe that I get from the crypto market and even the non participants that I have around, is starting to look a lot like 2017. We've got that "certainty feeling" that it's only going up, we don't know for how long and how high, but the bulls are here.
The first Bitcoin futures ETF has been approved, apparently, in the US and there will probably be a spot one approved as well and tons of money will enter the market.
This time is different...
For the ones that have been in crypto for more than a cycle it's probably natural to hear that "this time is different", when mania kicks in, and all of a sudden a bear market stealing the show is proving that this time is actually not different at all.
I'd say though that this time is indeed different and that the flow of ETFs that are going to be approved in the US and all around the world, with America being a leader in hash rate in the world and developing countries making Bitcoin legal tender will change the patterns we've been used for the crypto markets for about a decade.
I don't believe we will have a bear market anything like the one from 2018. I truly believe that once everything goes ballistic, there should be a cool off afterwards and the projects having little to less fundamentals will suffer the most, but overall I'm extremely bullish for the next decade in crypto.
Most of you probably know what happened with gold when the first gold ETF was approved. When we talk crypto though we should take in consideration that this type of assets is benefiting from exponential growth and that the times we currently live, and the gaps these projects are filling are way different than what gold had for us when its first ETF got approved in the US, back in 2003.
This bull market, if we can still consider it a "time limited bull market", when taking a look at the potential of growth and the perspective the industry has, has way different players and the projects that we bet on have started to have real life use cases.
I mean, I don't see the majority of the investors selling their NFTs and the industry freezing for two years from now, DeFi deflating, blockchain games suddenly becoming like ICOs and hivers fall in the pattern many around here have had with Steem in the previous cycle. I do believe there will be a peak, but the market will catch up soon after the cool off period.
Just imagining that the situation of 2018 will repeat in crypto, feels like abandoning a building house right after setting the foundation and waiting for two more years to continue the work. Development is not going to be paused, NFTs are here to stay, DeFi is in the same position and there will be many major players that will treat Bitcoin as a true store of value and not just a swing trading asset.
My take is that this swing trading mentality is going to apply mostly to retail as we get further down the road and these ones, if not involved in a crypto project that can generate them new coins, like what we have with Hive, will end up on the sidelines with a hand full of cash just to witness the train continue its journey.
Does that mean I won't sell anything in the following months? Hell no... It means though that I am very cautious and I'm following on-chain data and trends closely. Will for sure use the stable ones I'm get into, as the prices move up into staking, and probably not exiting entirely from any of my positions. Unfortunately I don't own Bitcoin though... I got no one to blame for that.
I don't see "an end for crypto" like we had in 2018, when the market and the industry looked like it got frozen for two years or so and all we had was announcements upon announcements with no real life use case projects, aside from a few exceptions. This time is different, I tell you that...
Thanks for attention,