It is quite easy to loose yourself in the graphs and charts lately as the price of Bitcoin consolidates a bit over $30,000. The correction has hit us hard and the feelings regarding this bull market are mixed, some are actually believing we're entering a bear market. I wouldn't say that.

I'd say though that the crypto industry is pretty much where amazon was back in 2005-2009. The world was just starting to hear about it and e-commerce was gradually becoming a thing. Now e-commerce is representing a good chunk of the total sales in the world. Everybody orders from amazon...

Same as everybody will be using crypto and hold such currencies, let us call them currencies and not assets, in a few years from now. The major catalyst in bull markets is the Bitcoin halving and one year ago through this event the rewards that miners get every 10 minutes have been cut in half from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoin per mined block.

If we've had that much demand for Bitcoin from financial institutions after the previous halving, imagine how that demand will look like prior and after the next one. 1 BTC will always be one BTC, but the way of collecting precious sats will be harder and harder. I believe that whatever we had for Bitcoin prior to the 2020 halving has been a fore play...

Well, not even fore play, Bitcoin was just undressing. Scarcity is what gives this internet money value and what drew attention of wealthy investors upon it in the premise of a future digital world. What financial institutions have the crypto markets had prior to 2021?

Digital Galaxy... Mike Novogratz will be just a cheerleader with tons of false predictions in the years to come. 3.125 Bitcoin per mined block is what I call scarcity. 6.25 is not much either and that's what fueled the blow from $20,000 to $40,000.

How long will this bull market last, how high Bitcoin will peak and when are we going to enter a bear market is way out of my knowledge. I'm 100% that we're gonna have a never seen peak in Bitcoin's price this bull cycle that will be indeed epic and that a bear market will follow soon after. How low will the prices, especially the one of Bitcoin go?

Not too low, and I have a reasoning for that. Most of the uptrend this cycle has been fueled by financial institutions, it's what we have dreamed of for quite a few years, although that doesn't benefit us too much from the decentralized distribution of hodlings point of view. Those institutions are in it for the long run. They'll probably at some point introduce some sort of interest for their customers holding Bitcoin for longer time frames incentivizing them not to sell.

These institutions and the future ones to enter crypto are perfectly aware of the valence the halving has on Bitcoin's dollar valuation and also scarcity of the coins. They'll probably won't wait for bottoms and stay on the side lines to enter positions in a presumed two years bear market. We will probably won't even have a two year bear market.

When you realize that Bitcoin is the digital gold and that its dollar valuation is primed to get to a million and above how much does it matter if you bought it at $40,000 or $50,000. It doesn't even matter what dollar valuation "the standard" will have.

For perspective of where Bitcoin's heading in this world's acceptance and valuation I look at amazon. We're currently where amazon was back in 2005-2009 and the 2024 Bitcoin halving will be the real deal. The bear market after the current bull cycle will be "a warm one" as investors realize there's not much time left to accumulate until true scarcity kicks in.

Going into 2024 and beyond we won't have discounts anymore and there are high chances the volatility of Bitcoin price will fade away as investors will no longer be incentivized to sell. Altcoins will probably still see a lot of volatility and speculation as their launch promises need to be alchemized into real world use cases, but Bitcoin will indeed become the digital gold.

Plebs have had their chance to buy cheap Bitcoin for years. I don't think we will face ourselves with that chance ever again. It's gradually getting in the hands of institutions and those "are not fucking selling". So far in crypto we've been shown the play ground, but the game hasn't started yet. The next halving marks the starting fire. I feel like comparing current market behavior with what we've had the past few years is pointless.

The metrics are totally different. Almost anything you can think of is totally different. At some point "the decoupling" will occur. Sharks and whales are already aware of that imo and they won't miss the chance to grab cheap digital gold while they can. Chances are that most of it will be handed to financial institutions by lambo boys and general retail investors.

I know, history often rhymes, but we haven't yet created the important chapters of this Bitcoin history. We're still in the preface of the crypto book. Have a great Sunday and see you to the next post.

Thanks for attention,
Adrian