Surprise, surprise motherfuckers, the king is back...

I don't know from what movie is this line, but a friend of mine has it as a message tone and that's what rang to my ears when I first checked on the crypto market early this morning. $16,000 is about to fall, so get ready boys and gals.

The crash from $20,000 which happened not so long ago, when most of us believed it was "up only again" was caused by FTX(not CZ of Binance) and now we're looking at another FTX shit show threatening the crypto market stability. Damn, how stable BTC was at $16,666 for a while now. I kind of miss it now.

Recent news tells us that FTX got hacked for $250 million ETH. Some suspect that it was an inside job, but who knows exactly what happened... The idea is that the hacker is dumping ETH into WBTC on Ren and he might be dumping that too...

ETH started falling yesterday morning, but for a few hours now, BTC reacted in the same manner. So, the market is bleeding again and we don't get any damn V shape recovery from the shit we've fallen into after the FTX hack. My friend, @edicted, sorry mate, but your forecasts lately are unfortunately not coming to fruition.

Thanks for shilling me the crystals girl through your posts, though ;). I found her and I'm following her for a while. The chick was active a few hours ago, tweeting that for the rest of the year we should expect "calm and peace" in the world, but we will have quite turmoiled waters for the markets for the rest of the year.

Well, crypto is always ahead of the curve, and we now have the "proof of turmoil" predicted by the crystals girl. When both exchanges and astrology are against us what's left to do? Look left...

Yep, it's once again time to pay some attention to the history of the crypto market. I was once a stubborn motherfucker who refused to believe we were ever going to have a 2018-like bear market. Stubbornness hardly turns out to be lucrative...

So far we've proven to have a quite similar bear market to the one in 2018. It's not that similar when it comes to price action as this one to me looked to be more aggressive, but we're close to 80% correction from ATH for BTC and we might get there soon. So far BTC has correct. What does that mean, $12k?

Be it, let's burn the motherfucker and build back better.

So, if this bear season is to replicate the 2018 one in length as well, then we should be expecting a change in trends sometime in March-April, 2023. If you look at the chart of Bitcoin from the past cycle you will see that after it fell from $6,000 to around $3,000 it took it something like 4 months to bottom out and break out to the upside once again.

If we're about to bottom finally... then we should expect the trend change to happen sometime in Q1 2023. In the past cycle, it took BTC 15 months to correct from the ATH and start a new uptrend. If that happens again, then March should be the month we should be looking at for an uptrend.

Meanwhile, DCA in if you still have cash on the side and keep on grinding with whatever you do crypto-related. Have a great Monday and week ahead and we'll catch up next time.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian