Bienvenidos mis ositos, tu siempre eres mis queridos! (Welcome back little bears you are always my dears!)

You’re probably wondering “what the hell did I get myself into?!?”

You probably see a lot of red in your portfolios.

It doesn’t matter if it’s stocks, bonds, or digital assets.

Certain commodities that tend to do well in inflationary times have started pulling back.

Heck, even CASH may not be a safe haven for some!!! Our frens in Europe have suffered with low or negative interest rates on their bank deposits. Recently they have to deal with the Euro dumping to parity status with the US dollar.

The Euro hasn’t been at that level in decades. American goods and services may take a hit from European consumers as they tighten their belts.

Does this mean we’ve hit rock bottom in crypto?

Now I’m not a macro economist and I don’t have a crystal ball.

But I don’t think we’ve hit rock bottom.

We’ve already seen a “guillotine” move down earlier this year. Now the question becomes do we see another “guillotine” move down or do get “sandpapered” to death?

The digital asset space still evolves so it will be hard to tell how it will relate to the real world. It will depend on what crypto whales do.

If you have Winklevoss money or have achieved celebrity status you probably don’t care how bad a recession will hit. You can still eat well or pay for lifestyle expenses.

You can afford to HODL or even add to your crypto stash at lower levels. This would explain how top tier NFTs like Bored Ape Yacht Club haven’t seen as much of

Now contrast this with a panda pleb like me.

As much as I like the digital asset space there will be a price that could force me to tap out. This panda doesn’t have a high pain tolerance!

I wouldn’t sell all my crypto but if push came to shove I would have to sell off some to meet living expenses.

Some optimistic analysts have predicted that central banks could reverse and start cutting interest rates and conduct quantitative easing again. That could light a fire under the digital asset space again.

That could happen and I wouldn’t complain if crypto prices start rising again.

But we have to be realistic about our chances here. When have you known central banks to act at the right time?

Central bank econometrics and forecasting abilities are probably no better than ours. Heck we could flip a coin on what to do and it would be just as good as any central bank decision.

No matter what happens, keep your lifestyle expenses modest. Save as much as you can.

It will be impossible for me to get the exact rock bottom correct. However I will deploy some cash whenever I think there is a big down day. I won’t rush in. It’s going to be a while until late 2024 (this is when I think the next bull market could start again).

Keep your skills and resume updated. I know some of you come home tired after a hard day of work but consider putting in for an extra shift, a part time job, or side hustles.

This probably isn’t what you want to hear, but I want my frens to stay alive for the next bull market. I wish I could share some magical crypto that can 100x but that’s now the reality now.

Let’s hope the situation doesn’t get worse in 2023.

Even if you do hit crypto rock bottom, remember to dust yourself off and get back up. We can win this fight!

Obviously none of this is formal financial or tax advice. You need to find qualified professionals in your jurisdiction.

Be sharp, stay hungry let’s get that money!