Disclaimer: 20% of my networth is in bitcoin
1. Covid-19 comes back with a vengeance
During the influenza in 1917 it was the second wave of infections which killed many more than the first wave. Many experts warn of a potential second wave of infections which could again bring the market to its knees.
2. Covid-19 is gradually killing the economy
Even without a second wave, the damage that covid has already done is devastating. The unemployment rate in the US rose from 4% to 16%, the largest rise since the statistics were first collected in 1948. The US stock market response to this? 8 weeks of delirious bullish price action.
2. Buy the rumour, sell the news
The only people buying now are those who have recently become aware of the news or those who are are falling pray to hyperbiased Twitter cryptoheads. There are many good reasons to buy bitcoin, buying it several days before the halving because you heard bitcoin is pumping is not one of them.
3. Bearish market structure
The weekly time frame show lower highs and lower lows which have not been broken. So despite this recent impressive bull run, we are NOT in a bull market. The trend is your friend.
4. When it rains, it pours
When bitcoin does eventually correct from this 8 week run up, it will not be slow and steady. It will be fast and brutal. Bearish price action is usually more quick and explosive than bullish action.
5. There will be another chance
Even if bitcoin does somehow surpass 10k (it is currently resisting even from this level) AND jump another 20% to 12k, it will still be due for at least a 15-20% recovery if not more, giving you another chance to buy at these prices. The difference then will be that you will be buying on a discount after breaking previous highs (i.e. after breaking previous weekly high of 10,500) instead of buying the hype at the day's highest price.