Two scenarios for Bitcoin and the probabilities

By Emad | honarparvar | 30 Aug 2020

BTC is on the edge of a decision for the next move and here are my thoughts:

the mid-term and long-term trend for BTC, remains bullish for me. as long as it remains above the 200 EMA in daily chart, I remain strongly bullish.

but BTC have had a correction from its latest high ~$12460 in Aug 17th; and where is the bottom for this correction?


scenario no.1
as it has entered the Ichi cloud in 4H chart, it will touch the ground of the cloud once and exits upside, so the correction ends around $11400

scenario no.2
it will exit the cloud once again, touches the support level of 10400-10700 and then starts the rally to new highs.

probabilities of the above scenarios:

to study that, let's check the daily chart:


it seems the probability of the first scenario is higher than the second; let say 60 to 40 percent.

again, for me, the possibility of a down trend formation is valid but very little.

what are your opinions?
remember: this is not a financial advice or trading signal; just my thoughts to engage with others and correct myself in my own trades. thank you.

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