Two scenarios for Bitcoin and the probabilities

By Emad | honarparvar | 30 Aug 2020


BTC is on the edge of a decision for the next move and here are my thoughts:

the mid-term and long-term trend for BTC, remains bullish for me. as long as it remains above the 200 EMA in daily chart, I remain strongly bullish.

but BTC have had a correction from its latest high ~$12460 in Aug 17th; and where is the bottom for this correction?

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scenario no.1
as it has entered the Ichi cloud in 4H chart, it will touch the ground of the cloud once and exits upside, so the correction ends around $11400

scenario no.2
it will exit the cloud once again, touches the support level of 10400-10700 and then starts the rally to new highs.

probabilities of the above scenarios:

to study that, let's check the daily chart:

a3aaa6e439bfc0fccd63e5d44cfe00c972b2a85656d2167dbddb8ca21dee0eeb.png

it seems the probability of the first scenario is higher than the second; let say 60 to 40 percent.

again, for me, the possibility of a down trend formation is valid but very little.

what are your opinions?
remember: this is not a financial advice or trading signal; just my thoughts to engage with others and correct myself in my own trades. thank you.

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Emad
Emad

youtuber, business developer and Crypto enthusiast


honarparvar
honarparvar

Writing is my addiction!

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