If you are following up with crypto news, if you hodl some coins or you are a swing/day trader etc,
or if you are trading any other commodities, currency pairs or stocks on any market,
you are very familiar with three different attitudes of others in those markets:
- people who always try to predict trends
- those who try to forecast events
- and men of probabilities
the first group are mostly talking emotionally, loud and providing no solid evidence to their claims. to me it seems they just know things! and ofcourse, there might be occasions which they prove right!
the second group combine some facts and docs with their emotions to conclude something. and the third group (which I am a member and fan!) are always speculating and measuring the probability of events to happen.
Understanding the difference between a prediction and the probability is an important distinction for successful traders in any financial market. Anyone, regardless of their specific knowledge or expertise, can toss around market predictions.
But Probabilities are based on historical data sets and evidences. Predictions are absolute, right or wrong. Probabilities run a spectrum, from highly unlikely to extremely likely.
stay away from Nostradamuses of financial markets! this is my advise! listen to the men of probabilities and try to evaluate their claims, measure your own risk with their statistics and apply them in to your own trading system with full responsibility of your own.
this post has also been published on my Hive.blog account here
