Stop Relying on Technical Analysis

# Stop Relying on Technical Analysis

By Gopherine | gopherine | 27 May 2020

Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that technical analysis is bad or totally rejected. But there are lots of people who blindly rely on others' analysis without understanding the core of it. Also, what they fail to understand that, there is a serious lack of data to 100 percent predict, something will succeed or fail just by looking at technical analysis. I won't even name anyone in this post but be wise and read what I have to say and you are free to disagree with my point of view. The basic philosophy of technical analysis is history repeats itself and it works upon the foundations of statistical analysis. A very similar approach to data science or the buzz machine learning where we read on the historical data and predict future results. Now to understand this we have to understand a basic foundation of such data.

Let's assume we want to predict what would be the gender of any person. We get the measurement of their height and weight, and then we predict their gender. In this case we can predict successfully 90 percent or more of the times the correct result. The reason is we are having a very concrete scale of differentiation with only two classes that is male or female, remember something the more classified a data is the fewer data we need to predict. For example, we can say most of the girls have a height of roughly 5 feet (1.52 m) to 5.8 feet (1.77 m) while a boys' height is 5.8 feet (1.77 m) to 6.2 feet (1.89 m) respectively ( ignoring all other exceptions for this example ) , in here it is really easy to determine who is male and who is female.

Now since we have that in place, let's apply the same logic to cryptocurrency, here we have roughly 5000 coins and the price of the coin can spike between any range , something can fall from 0 to as high as 20k dollars. Here comes the problem technical analysis is based upon the pattern of the data, but these data are generated based on the real-world conditions affecting the price of that entity. Now pause for 1 minute and think how can you predict something just based on the charts when the chart itself is getting affected by something external. For example last month the price of Digibyte was quite low looking at the chart only, people could not have predicted- it will boom up, but the reason it did was because of the new application supported by Digibyte amid corona. Can the chart tell you that Digibyte will be making such a move and the price will rise? A plain simple answer is no. The market is non-deterministic and there is no concrete way to know if something will be bullish or bearish.

Most of the technical analysis you see on YouTube or some random site is nothing but a promotion of their own investment. They see the charts they tell you, see this it will boom boom boom this and bull, see this, it will down down down and bear. Now either it can go up or it can go down. If it goes up, I predicted it right if it goes down something bad happened. This is very similar to taro card reading where the card reader predicts your future and tells you generic predictions about your self if it comes out to be correct you become a believer if it's false. Then the reader comes up with a new card and tells you a new story. This is also the reason why at the end of all the videos they give you a disclaimer, that technical analysis is not guaranteed.

Now, I am not saying that it is complete bullshit, the technical analysis still has some value but it has to be combined with the real-world scenarios of the entity. And look at the pattern during similar conditions, then you might predict that something might pump or fall, do not blindly invest on something just because you saw the technical analysis of some random coin and someone is saying it will pump read about it, understand what is going on around it, what works for them might not work for you and most of them are also reading about it before investing on something so invest wisely.

PS: Everything here is my personal opinion so don't hate me  <3

Gopherine

Blockchain Freak and Developer

gopherine

My views on several cryptocurrencies and the market. Nothing that I post is a market advice, so make your decisions at your own risk.

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