The 4 seasons of the crypto markets


Anyone notice how the markets are quite stormy today but were almost looking good the other day? That's because we're in the crypto season of the great fall: It may feel warm today but suddenly cold tomorrow, and everyone is confused on what to coin to wear.

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This confusion can get the better of you unless you calm down and try to get into the rhythm of the season. The main coins fall marginally and then recover a bit, the rest are practically in a free fall mode with minor exceptions which may actually see some gains due to progress or major news/updates. But the majority of alts are down quite badly and when they make their slight recovery, they are still significantly more down than Bitcoin. So ultimately, most are down. What's the opposite of the great fall you ask? What's the crypto "summer"? Well that's the sunny bull of course.

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Ahhh yes, during the sunny bull we are all trading experts and crypto geniuses. Everyone's portfolio is up and even the major coins like Bitcoin or Ethereum make +50% to +250% gains. But what goes up, must come down. Or at least partially down. This is the correcting curve. Nothing to panic about, if you took gains periodically you might even be able to rebuild your entire stack with a handsome profit on the side, or increase your bags bigger than ever before, awaiting for that next bull summer which may even come early that year. But it may also not come at all this year, and the once calm curve suddenly turns into the globally feared crypto cooler season.

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Everything can go wrong in the coolness of the crypto winter. You can think to stay ahead of the curve and take large portions of your alts out and keep the bulk of your funds in Bitcoin and then see Bitcoin drop -8% while the alts you used to hold drop merely -2%. You can think to put everything in a stablecoin or cash it out for a few days to protect your gains and then see a recovery of +5%, only to jump back in fear of missing the sunny bull, only to then find it was a temporary thaw and the cooling season was still in full swing and your coins continued to freeze. Great now what? Lose more gains by cashing out again or just hibernate and hope some gains will survive this harsh coolness?

As the ice starts to melt, some come out early and try to get a head start on the season where alts are renowned for: The alt spring season. Move over Bitcoin, your +5% gains are now nothing compared to the +100% recovery some alts make in this season. Those that timed it perfectly managed to save their gains and can now reload their bags even fuller than before without putting in more cash. Ahhh yes, that good ol' feeling of getting more for less. This is the best season for it.

Then there are these few periods, not necessarily entire seasons but short periods where truly weird and bizarre things happen. Like the week of the great cryptodemic. Yes a pandemic was upon us and all markets got hit globally. the WHO officially announced the pandemic on March 11 2020, but insiders and those that kept their ear to the ground got a head start and cashed out the days before. Less than 48 hours after the announcement, the markets already started to recover and anyone who didn't jump back aboard by then just made double losses. First by selling low, then by getting back in too late. Yes the crypto seas were angry that week my friends and many of us fell overboard.

This last example is just crazy and was truly terrifying. It was so terrifying many of us have buried it in our subconscious and I hope I never witness anything like this ever again. It was the haunted roller coaster portfolio slasher and it happened somewhere in 2019 I think. Nothing got spared that week. Every time Bitcoin dropped -5%, alts all dropped -10%, when Bitcoin recovered +4%, alts stayed down, then Bitcoin dropped again another -6% and alts dropped another -10% on top of the already previous -10%. The next day when Bitcoin recovered, alts stayed stable again and didn't recover along with Bitcoin. I had enough, I wasn't going to let that happen to me a third time. But wait, what if it was a trap? what if the haunted ride wanted me to think 3 time's a charm? I decided to ride it out and the next day, like clockwork, Bitcoin dumped again another -5%, but this time alts stayed stable. For a few minutes, then they all dropped again. This roller coaster lasted about a week and many got thrown off despite staying seated and buckled in. When they gained conciseness, 25% of their portfolio had evaporated.

 

Yes it's Sunday and I was bored :) I'm just doing a bit of trading till the Mother of all Talkshows starts in a few hours. If you haven't heard of it you should definitely check it out, it's the undisputed best alternative to the main stream narrative IMO.

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Geo-Political & Economical developments
Geo-Political & Economical developments

Things are almost never as they seem. If you sincerely think that world powers would spend their money and resources in order to just "help" citizens from foreign nations, you might want to ask yourself why they've been neglecting and out right murdering their own citizens for decades. What are their true motives for wanting to fund foreign (terror) groups, start global confrontations and wars? I'll let you in on a little secret; It has NOTHING to do with "human rights" nor "democracy".

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