We call that asymmetry…
That’s the key in trading.
I own crypto on one hand, but I short them on the other hand… not the same game.
And lately, I’ve added something else to the mix: I short oil too.
On Hyperliquid: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/CRYPTOFAB
Let me explain.
Because today’s context matters. A lot.
Oil is not just “another asset” right now. It’s the macro trigger.
We’re sitting around ~$110 per barrel today after a +40% move in a month.
That’s not normal. That’s stress.
Why?
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Middle East conflict is disrupting supply routes (especially Hormuz)
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Inventories are draining fast, potentially toward critical levels
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Some analysts are openly talking about $120–150 oil if disruptions persist
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Inflation fears are coming back strong because of energy prices
So you have a very asymmetric setup.
If oil keeps pumping →
That’s not “good growth”. That’s a supply shock.
Markets read it as:
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inflation up
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rate cuts delayed
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liquidity tighter
And crypto? It suffers. Hard.
So my crypto shorts win.
But now flip it.
If oil dumps →
It probably means:
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de-escalation
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demand destruction already priced
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inflation easing
And then markets go risk-on again.
Crypto rebounds.
But here’s the key insight:
Both scenarios imply large moves. Not sideways.
That’s where the asymmetry comes from.
Because today, oil is sitting at the center of:
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geopolitics
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inflation expectations
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liquidity cycles
It’s not just a commodity. It’s a switch.
So by shorting oil and positioning in crypto (both directions), I’m not betting on one outcome.
I’m betting that something breaks.
And when something breaks:
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correlations spike
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reactions overshoot
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and that’s where the edge is
It’s not about being right on oil.
It’s about understanding that right now, oil is the trigger…
and crypto is the amplifier.
That’s why I trade both.
