I used to be a fan of TON.

Back when the ecosystem started gaining traction, it felt like one of the few blockchains that could actually onboard a massive user base thanks to its connection with Telegram. Millions of users already there, simple wallets, easy onboarding… the narrative was strong.

Now I am shorting Toncoin on Extended Exchange.

You may do the same or buy it long if you think differently here:
https://app.extended.exchange/join/BFAB

There is a good chance of an airdrop, though not guaranteed.

Now why I am shorting TON.

A big part of it comes down to differentiation and real usage of blockchain technology.

A year ago the ecosystem was buzzing with small Telegram games promising future airdrops. Tap-to-earn mechanics, simple bots, little mini-apps everywhere. At first it looked like a clever onboarding funnel. Millions of people clicking, farming points, hoping the rewards would be meaningful.

But when the airdrops actually arrived, the reality was… disappointing.

For most users the rewards were just a few dollars. The excitement faded quickly. The engagement that looked massive suddenly felt shallow. When the incentives disappeared, so did most of the activity.

So what remains today?

When I look at the ecosystem, one of the main DeFi apps that stands out is Evaa Protocol.

And when you examine it closely, it feels like a mirror of Aave — a lending platform that already exists across multiple blockchains such as Ethereum, Polygon, or Avalanche.

Which raises the obvious question: what is the unique value proposition?

If the core applications are just copies of protocols that already dominate other ecosystems, then the long-term differentiation becomes weak. And without strong differentiation, it’s hard to justify the valuation of a chain purely on narrative.

That’s ultimately why I’m shorting TON right now.

Not because the technology is necessarily bad, and not because it cannot pump again in the short term — crypto markets are unpredictable. But because when I zoom out and look at real usage, developer activity, and unique applications, the ecosystem still feels surprisingly thin for a project with such a large user distribution channel.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe a killer app will appear and prove me completely wrong.

But until I see that, I’m positioning on the short side.