I was happy like most of you to see crypto pumping today. Green candles, relief everywhere, people calling the bottom. But I kept one eye on the news and something felt off.

The rally is priced on one thing: Trump saying US forces will be out of Iran in two or three weeks. Markets loved it. Stocks bounced hard, oil dipped, crypto followed the risk-on wave. Classic.

Here is the problem. Iran denied asking for a ceasefire. Their foreign ministry called Trump's ceasefire claim "false and baseless." This is not a minor detail. The entire bullish narrative today rests on a statement that the other side flatly contradicts.

Trump is scheduled to address the nation tonight at 9pm ET. Nobody knows what he will actually say. He has been shifting his goals in this conflict for weeks, swinging between escalation threats and "we're almost done." His own timelines have already slipped once. Four to six weeks became two to three more.

And the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. One fifth of the world's oil passes through there. Gas in the US is already above four dollars. Inflation is heading back toward four percent. This is not a resolved situation. This is a pause in the anxiety.

So yes, enjoy the green. But do not mistake a relief rally for a trend reversal. If tonight's speech disappoints, or if Iran escalates again, this bounce evaporates fast.

I am not selling everything. But I am not adding either. I am watching what Trump actually says at 9pm, not what he posted on Truth Social this morning.

Stay sharp out there. This one is not over.