I have meant to comment on the price action for a while now. Yet, I could not find the right moment to collect my thoughts and organize my thought in the right way. In one of my last posts, which were (wow) full three months ago, I had sensed that the bull run is starting to create FUD, which may take over. Especially I was pondering the new old FUD regarding energy usage.

And as I was worried, all hell broke out and from a fundamental upward driver, Elon Musk turned into a fundamental downward driver. In addition, it is clear that central bank authorities would like to intervene in the sector with their own issuance and last, but not least, China has already started to make pace for its own centrally controlled digital currency.

I have been in crypto and BTC for a very long time by BTC standard and it is quite obvious already without doing any specific analysis that BTC price and mining difficulty are almost perfectly correlated. The hash-rate did not follow the price action and now it is almost 30% down from highs as China mining operations are closing and are in the process of moving away. Difficulty is expected to go down to early 2020 and perhaps 2019 levels. This development is also not quite supportive for fueling any expectations regarding price development. With Hash rate slightly up to 110 EH/s and difficulty scheduled to go down to 16.83 T (lowest since almost 12 months) in 8 days, this is not exactly reassuring.

In short - we are already in a brand new crypto winter. I worry that this one may be a long one again - perhaps lasting well until the next halving event in 2024. It is disappointing as naturally I lose the bright outlook and positive attitude and it becomes quite difficult to exercise my HODL mentality. However I have firmly decided on the following point of view, which I am maintaining for a very long-time:

• 1. Don't bet the house on BTC - my holding are slowly accumulating and I am happy. I make very small and steady purchases. I use some simple lending to accumulate
• 2. HODL and accumulate. Earliest revision period in this strategy for me is January 2025. Until then I have decided that HODL and accumulate is my way to go whatever happens in price action.

Is it all bleak and gloomy? In my opinion no! FUD is taking over, however the original fundamental story is not changing at all!

• 1. BTC is deflationary! And inflation due to central bank policy is not just an expectation any more - inflation is here to stay. BTC is and always will remain the perfect store of value!
• 2. The blockchain has been around for 12 years now, it is secure and transparent and well functioning. It is already a mass phenomenon and not something brand new.
• 3. Mining moving out of China, well in my original posts I was actually worried mining is becoming too centralized and of all places  - in China! Isn't that actually good news?
• 4. Adoption is becoming larger by the day. The preponderance of evidence is out here and there is no need to focus on this one. Actually adoption in 2018 and 2021 is impossible to compare, so the two crypto winters would be not comparable at all.

The fundamental pillars behind Bitcoin remain firm and unchanged. Yes, this is not an assurance that FUD would not eventually take over and drive our holdings to zero, however I do believe in the fundamental story.

On a side note - my old aging Innosilicon T2T 30 TH/s is off the grid again. It has been so since April. However if difficulty continues to retreat and price remains steady over USD 30 000, I may reconsider resuming hobby mining as tiny additional stream to the HODL and accumulate.

In conclusion: We are in a crypto winter and I expect it to be a long one. It seems now that each time price goes to an ATH, the FUD seems to take over. So far the past has shown that FUD cannot destroy the fundamental story and it successfully persists. I am not changing my view and I continue to HODL and accumulate as I already have done in the past many years. I do not plan to change my plan for doing until January 2025.