As we close in on the final moments before the Bitcoin halving, I want to start off by saying congrats to all of you who are already holding Bitcoin of any amount. I really do believe that it's spearheading the future of money and we're all pioneers in that sense. Where I differ from many industry pundits is in making any sort of numerical prediction related to Bitcoin after the halving. Yes, I have done so in jest on Twitter, but truly, I think making an exact prediction on Bitcoin's price in say, a year, is impossible to do.
Why, you might ask?
Well, in spite of the fact that predictions are eternally connected to historical data, Bitcoin and the entire blockchain tech industry is changing at a speed that none of us have ever seen. Related to this, Bitcoin's price movements depend on an unprecedented number of factors. The opinion of regulators, the opening and closing of derivatives contracts, aggregated growth in users, the block reward, transaction fees, the overall behavior of miners, and simple supply-and-demand all play into the picture.
Making an accurate prediction would mean having an excellent understanding of all of these factors as they stand now as well as how Bitcoin's users(including miners) will react to this halving over the long-term.
How, for example will they supplement their income now that the potential pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is cut in half?
Will transaction fees stay at a higher level than ever before?
Will exchanges, as I heard one expert suggest today at Consensus: Distributed, become miners and pay for their mining rigs with their profits, causing even more of Bitcoin's trading to move inside of their walls?
Will something else happen that I can't even conceptualize at this point?
For now, it's hard to know. The fact remains that Bitcoin will continue to grow despite all of these questions. Perhaps, knowing this, we should do as we have always done, especially since the ICO boom-and-bust and keep our heads down and build. Without us, how will the world be ready for Bitcoin(and all sorts of other coins with it)?
All in all, these are simply some of the thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head as we wait for the halving to unfold.
As always, thanks for reading and remember to connect with me on Twitter@ExpatCrypto3.
Finally, I rely on tips to keep these informal posts going and pay it forward too as much as I can!
Be well in this crazy, chaotic world-
(If you have the time, keep up with Consensus: Distributed, it's been very interesting so far to hear the opinions of all of the experts they've gathered up this year)