Hi Everyone,

In this post I will talk about Altcoins and I will bring up a chart of the total market cap of Altcoins excluding Bitcoin. This will show some interesting levels as to when to try to buy in on some Altcoins. Your buy-ins can be placed around the Fibonacci retracement levels ! The blue lines on the charts will show you these levels.  

When charting the total market cap of cryptocurrencies without Bitcoin, you can see that it does respect the Fibonacci retracement levels quite well. Here is a daily chart with the RSI indicator on the bottom :

You can see specific market cap levels on the right (in blue). The RSI is rapidly moving to the downside and when you look at the Fibonacci levels the 0,618 retracement will be the most interesting one to watch. A drop towards this level, which will be around 75 billion market cap for Altcoins will most likely coincide with RSI ending up at oversold ! This could lead to a bounce and potentially the end of our downside in Altcoins. The 75 billion total market cap excluding Bitcoin also shows a lot of support. In my opinion this is the most important level to hold for the Altcoins, otherwise we will fall a lot further towards the 63/64 billion level, which will be the 0,786 fib retracement level. You have to keep in mind that even the 0,786 fib retracement level is not such a bad thing, because it will still create a higher low on higher time frames, but there will be quite some Altcoins that will drop heavily and by themselves they can create lower lows on their higher time frames. If you look at Chainlink for example, this will not happen. This is a strong enough Altcoin to hold above its last low if the total market cap for Altcoins was to fall towards the 0,786 retracement, but there will be other weaker altcoins that can create new lows so watch out for that !

Here is another daily chart with the indicator OBV on the bottom. OBV generally leads the price of an asset and if you see prices fall down, but OBV remains towards the upside, it will mean that smart money is accumulating and weak hands get shaken out :

This daily chart clearly shows me that OBV is still doing well and is not dropping all that much. Price is dropping much harder. This is a good sign, because it means that accumulation is going on and weaker hands are moving out of the way ! The question is which Altcoins are being accumulated and which ones are being dumped ? This is not easy to answer of course, but you can imagine that some of them like Chainlink, Litecoin, Ethereum, etc. are there for accumulation.

One little note on Ethereum though : PlusToken was a big scam and they hold a lot of Ethereum, Bitcoin and EOS. They have sold off a lot of Bitcoins already, but Ethereum is kind of a mystery still. I have seen EOS going down heavily the 15th of February, the 16th of February and the 19th of February. This could be connected to the PlusToken scammers selling off EOS. Ethereum however has not been sold off as much as for example EOS. Keep in mind that ETH can get dropped more, because of PlusToken ! On the other hand they could make a lot more money by holding on to it until it reaches a much higher level, then it is right now.

Conclusion for the total market cap of Altcoins excluding Bitcoin is that they are in a heavy sell off right now, but this is not a bad thing. There is quite some fear in the market right now and you buy when there is blood on the streets ! OBV is showing strength which is a good sign for Altcoins and RSI is moving down rapidly which will go towards oversold conditions if we were to fall towards the 0,618 retracement level (75 billion total market cap for Alts). This could well be the turning point for Altcoins and this would create a higher low on the higher time frames and could well lead to new highs for 2020 ! The halvening is coming up for BTC in a couple of months and this is a big thing ! Expect some volatility before this halvening !

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Have a nice day !

I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.