Bitcoin (BTC) closed a monthly candle yesterday and it closed on a positive note. It held support around the 11.500 $ level and this is good news. It seems we are consolidating and this would imply a further upwards move in September towards the 13.800$ area on the monthly chart which shows several touch points of resistance.
Today I am going to show some daily charts. They are less powerful than weekly charts, but are still very important. Here is one with the indicators RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CCI (Commodity Channel Index) :
Several things can be seen on this chart. On the RSI we can see a downwards movement (red arrow) while price was moving upwards (other red arrow in price chart). This was clear bearish divergence and we broke downwards. After price went below 11.5K I expected it to hit around the 10.5K/10.2K level. This did not happen (I was wrong here), but instead something interesting has been evolving. I drew a blue line in the price chart that shows an area that has been holding up several times with decent wicks. It is the 11.134 $ area. Because of the wicks and the moves upwards after touching this level several times, it seems likely there is a big entity (or more) holding up the price. Someone does not want price to fall lower than this level and that is very good to see.
Another thing right now is that we are breaking out of the RSI channel I drew (yellow lines). If RSI can stay above the upper yellow line today, it most likely means continuation for the price moving upwards. RSI would once again move towards the overbought territory in that case.
This would coincide with the price channel I drew (green lines) and that price is fighting its way back inside the channel again. Once again good news and it seems likely if we stay back in that we will hit the upper green line which would imply around the 13K level !
The CCI indicator is powerful for buying and selling if you are trading Bitcoin (or other Altcoins). You can almost blindly buy-in once the indicator shows oversold conditions. On the overbought area however it is less likely for it to really sell-off and for me it means we are in a bull market right now. Oversold conditions lead to price going upwards and overbought conditions seem more for consolidations.
Here is another daily chart with the indicators Bitmex funding rate and OBV (On Balance Volume) :
The Bitmex funding rate is still pointing upwards and this in general would lead at some point to a long squeeze, which means prices moving down. You can see some strong red candles on the daily chart which lead to the Bitmex funding rate moving downwards. It means that longs have been liquidated. However since we are in a bull market, people will have the tendency to keep on going long, so we can see this indicator staying more upwards rather than downwards. Right now it is upwards again, but less impressively than before and that is a good sign I guess. We need more people thinking we are moving down.
OBV for now is not that impressive on the daily. I do not want to be bearish based on this, because on the weekly basis it looks better, but it cannot be ignored I believe. During today's move (hopefully we can keep on moving upwards) OBV is not really moving upwards. It is lower than for example 2 days ago, while price is moving higher.
The Chaikin money flow (I did not put this indicator on it) is also a little bit lower on a daily chart, which coincides with the OBV indicator.
I believe, because of these indicators, that Bitcoin is right now being dragged upwards by Ethereum. Ethereum has been showing quite some strength these last days. It went below 400$ for a couple of days but it fought back up and right now we are around the 470$ level and 500$ is definitely in the cards.
New Altcoins I bought in
Recently I have been buying two new Altcoins, that were not yet in my portfolio. These two Altcoins are Swipe (SXP) and Polkadot (DOT). I have bought a small amount of both around the 2,70$ level for SXP and the 6,25$ level for DOT. I bought these for long term holding and if it moves lower in price, I will buy-in more. I believe that Swipe can be a very good competitor to Crypto.com and it is backed by Binance, which is for me the biggest exchange platform. Upside potential seems very high for this coin in the years to come. Polkadot seems a good competitor for Ethereum and proposes interoperability for cross-blockchain transfers of any kind of data or assets, next to tokens. Scalability is also a big point for DOT and will give Ethereum a reason to solve this problem. Obviously Ethereum is already trying to figure this out, but it is always good to have competition.
I must admit that Polkadot has more of a FOMO feeling for me ! I got impatient and felt I had to move in quickly. This has to do with Kusama which is the little brother of Polkadot. Kusama has really seen massive growth and DOT can follow the same path !
Quite simply put I think BTC is being moved upwards by the strength of Ethereum at the moment. There are some bullish indications (monthly close of BTC, RSI trying to break upwards and price trying to move back inside the green channel I drew), but on the other hand there are other indicators that are kind of stagnating, like the OBV and the Chaikin money flow on the daily chart. The Bitmex funding rate is still showing more longs than shorts, so overall people are still bullish. The fear and greed index is at 75 right now, which is showing greed.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the green channel, I believe we will see a move towards the 13k area. We would create a higher high again and seems indicative for continuation of the bull market. If however the 12k area remains too much of a resistance, we could be testing the 11.134$ area again and the question remains if it can keep on holding on as support.