Interesting dynamic to observe in macro markets. While Fed comments remain accommodating, disappointing economic data pushed investors to sell stocks and buy bonds. The 10-year yield fell to 1.55%, which ultimately is a positive for equities. It’ll be interesting to see how far up or down one can go before things revert. Gold seems to be flourishing in the inflation-fear environment, now close to $1,900.
In the crypto space, after what has felt like a week of incessant swings, yesterday’s session was somewhat quieter.
BTC’s attempts to break above 40K failed and with intraday lows down at 36K, we’re now closing the session 1.6% down, at $38,300.
The BTC Dominance index continues to edge down, now back just under 44. Alts definitely enjoyed the less volatile session to outperform. LINK, XTZ, ETH, ADA are showing some 1-2% gains.
Back to BTC, a beautiful chart from Glassnode tracks the NUPL (Net Realised Profit/Loss). This measures the amount of BTC held in profit or loss and gives a good indication of current market psychology.
Currently, the metric is at 0.5, typically showing deep bull cycle corrections and, typically touched upon a couple of times before the trend reverses to the downside. This is the first time we touch it during this cycle and so hints at a continuation, especially after a reset, and especially without having dipped into the ‘euphoria/greed’ area.
Yet another supportive data comes from CoinMetrics and shows the growing stablecoin supply hitting $100 billion. Naturally, this can be a result -in part- of selling coins into stable but also suggest a lot of dry-powder to buy -or buy back- said coins.
After dipping in the discount territory, ETHE (Grayscale’s ETH fund) is rebounding and trading at a premium, hinting at institutional demand. GBTC is still trading at a discount but seems to be reverting, again hinting at large players taking advantage of the lower BTC price to get in.
By the way, last information nugget, did you see the report by PwC on crypto hedge funds? It shows that the AUM has grown from $2 billion in 2020 to now $3.8 billion, almost double. In my opinion, the capital hasn’t stopped pouring in.
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