Yesterday, BTC fell below $30,000 but, unlike the previous times, it didn’t immediately bounce back up. This definitely doesn’t feel great, especially for any investor that would’ve gotten in after January of this year and is now -undoubtedly- not just in reduced profit but actual loss.
If the channel we’re in endures down, BTC prices might go to the mid 20K’s or even lower 20K’s. Ultimately that’s not a bad place to be at. Less than a year ago, most crypto investors were wondering whether we would top that milestone, coming from 10-12K.
As a multi-year holder and long-term investor, I’m not changing my tune. I’m happy to hold and even buy on the way down. Most of the money is made when there’s blood in the street, even if the blood is yours.
To have a more positive commentary, though, I do think yesterday’s move was actually more driven by macro/traditional markets and the pullback they experienced, rather than a particular event.
The news flowing through the crypto space remains decidedly positive, with more firms allocating, more infrastructure players getting set-up for crypto, more investments, etc. Just yesterday, we heard of FTX raising $900 million for an $18 billion valuation. That’s some serious money investing in the industry.
In other news, a new mining ETF just launched on NYSE Arca, enabling investors to allocate to the network and miners -which of course are growing in the US, following the fall in China.
We also heard rumours of Bank of America clearing crypto ETPS for hedge funds in Europe, maybe for 21Shares or the ETC Group.
Away from news and towards on-chain data, it’s fascinating to see the migration from short-term holders to long(er)-term holders. Probably experience in the past three to five years has left a legion of investors unphased by large drops. Many people are just hodling (including yours truly).
Broadly speaking the liquid supply also seems to be decreasing, highlighting a period of accumulation is going on, instead of flat out panic and capitulation. But maybe we need to reach capitulation before we can go back up.
Lastly, on a more bearish note, it does seem that miners are selling, despite the lower prices. That doesn’t feel good but maybe is just a function of the recent crackdowns and movement in mining operations.
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