Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in BTC as a token holder.

1A. Top 3 Good News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• MicroStrategy Buys 1,900 More Bitcoins
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 32 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Kevin O’Leary says his crypto holdings could reach 20% of portfolio
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 12 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• The Great Reset Triggers A Bitcoin Network Upgrade
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 6 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1B. Top 3 Bad News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• Hundreds of El Salvador citizens report missing Bitcoin from their wallets
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 2 positive votes, 18 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Coinone will stop withdrawals to unverified external wallets
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 9 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Investment in Nvidia, Moderna 1 year ago would deliver higher ROI than investing in Bitcoin
  Statistic as of 2021-12-31 02:22 AM EDT: 2 positive votes, 9 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Bitcoin Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

BTC has undergone 60.25% return from USD 29,022.42 to USD 46,506.99 since 01 Jan 2021. BTC is the 29th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. Technical Analysis on Bitcoin

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when BTC is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 30 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that BTC is losing significant momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of BTC closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that BTC is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that BTC is losing momentum. 

As of 30 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that BTC is losing significant momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of BTC
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of BTC on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of BTC from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of BTC

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that BTC is neither oversold nor overbought.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that BTC is oversold on both the 32-day and 46-day lookback windows.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is slightly bullish on BTC, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Bitcoin Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Bitcoin defined above, BTC seems to trade at a similar risk level on 30 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 20 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -9.81 %on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Bitcoin

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual BTC price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, BTC is trading below the median quantile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that BTC is slightly undervalued.

6. BTC Community Analytics

Number of BTC Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Bitcoin followers have grown 5,975.9 % from 68,380 to 4,154,698 on Twitter and grown 202.71 % from 1,231,212 to 3,727,008 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on Jul 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Jan 2021.

Number of BTC Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Bitcoin followers have grown 6.84 % from 3,888,822 to 4,154,698 on Twitter and grown 2.8 % from 3,625,487 to 3,727,008 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on 04 Dec 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 30 Dec 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

bitcoin reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-16 with a Google Score of 80
Over the last quarter, bitcoin Google Score has decreased 7.99 % from 28.8 to 26.5
Over the last 6 months, bitcoin Google Score has decreased 1.85 % from 27.0 to 26.5

Over the last month, bitcoin is most saught after on Google from El Salvador, followed by Faroe Islands and Namibia.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Forks
Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Bitcoin forks increased 15.24% from 26,937 to 31,042 in the past year.

Stars
Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Bitcoin stars increased 28.25% from 47,253 to 60,603 in the past year.

Pull Request
Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published high quality codes with highly impactful features got approved.

Bitcoin pull request contributors increased 8.78% from 706 to 768 in the past year.

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If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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