Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 

Announcement from Quantdoge

If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.

I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding the Community Analytics section which you could find below in this article, where this section would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time.

In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics and On-Chain Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.

1. Top 3 Good News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• The Bear Market Ironically Proves That Bitcoin Is The Future Of Money
  

  Statistic as of 2021-05-29 08:49 PM EDT: 84 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  
  

  Bitcoiner and founder of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group Raoul Pal mirrors down the extent to which the cryptocurrency market has grown in a tweet. The goal behind the creation of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin was, as explained in the Bitcoin whitepaper, was to launch a top competitor against leading currencies like the USD, […] (Extracted from CryptoPanic)
  
  

• Ignore the headlines — Bitcoin mining is already greener than you think
  Statistic as of 2021-05-29 08:49 PM EDT: 45 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  
  ESG-led Bitcoin mining is not only possible, but it’s ultimately the most responsible and prosperous way to show leadership in this growing industry.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Miami to Host The Biggest-Ever Bitcoin Conference
  Statistic as of 2021-05-29 08:49 PM EDT: 37 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  After a long break from crypto conferences due to COVID19, the world's biggest Bitcoin event will be taking place in the crypto-loving city of Miami in June.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

2. Top 2 Bad News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• Bitcoin can still drop to $20K but holding remains winning strategy, data shows
  

  Statistic as of 2021-05-29 08:52 PM EDT: 12 positive votes, 32 negative votes
  
  A majority of Bitcoin investors that held the cryptocurrency during its turbulent periods stand profitable.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he would still advise people to stay away from bitcoin
  Statistic as of 2021-05-29 08:52 PM EDT: 4 positive votes, 21 negative votes
  
  JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's views on bitcoin haven't changed much over the past few years. Dimon still thinks one shouldn't invest in bitcoin.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

3. How Bitcoin Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 30 May 2021, Bitcoin has made a cumulative return of 469.23% since Jan 2020 and 115.2%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 15th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

4. Technical Analysis on Bitcoin

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when BTC is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 30 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that BTC is trading way below its average price of USD 37,000 per BTC.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of BTC closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that BTC is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that BTC is losing momentum. 

As of 30 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that BTC is losing significant momentum.

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of BTC
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of BTC on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of BTC from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of BTC

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that BTC is trading near its oversold (or undervalued) level.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that BTC is trading near its oversold (or undervalued) level at the 28-day and 32-day time frame.

Based on the technical analysis presented above,quantdoge holds a bullish view on the short-term price action of Bitcoin, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Bitcoin Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Bitcoin defined above, BTC seems to trade at a lower risk level on 30 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 20 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at 15.52% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6. Price Simulation for Bitcoin

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual BTC price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, BTC has been trading near the median price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that BTC was trading at its fair value level over the last week.

7. BTC Community Analytics

Number of BTC Followers In The Past 24 Months


During the past 24 months, Bitcoin followers have grown 43.59 % from 64,938 to 93,245 on Twitter and grown 186.91 % from 1,045,039 to 2,998,280 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on 30 May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on 02 Mar 2021.

Number of BTC Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Bitcoin followers have grown 6.23 % from 87,778 to 93,245 on Twitter and grown 7.24 % from 2,795,987 to 2,998,280 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Bitcoin Twitter followers peaked on 22 May 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 19 May 2021.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.