Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I hold a long position in Ethereum (ETH) as a token holder.

1A. Top 3 Good News for ETH HODLERS !!!

• Argentina’s Former President Macri Sees Ethereum As One Of The Most Innovative Technologies Of The 21st Century
  Statistic as of 2021-12-21 11:34 AM EDT: 43 positive votes, 6 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Ethereum Co-Founder Vitalik Buterin Meets Former President of Argentina
  Statistic as of 2021-12-21 11:34 AM EDT: 32 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Bleak ETH withdrawals from exchanges hint a sharp move is imminent
  Statistic as of 2021-12-21 11:34 AM EDT: 31 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Ethereum Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 20 Dec 2021, Ethereum has made a cumulative return of 3,041.96% since Jan 2020 and 544.35%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 12th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Ethereum

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ETH is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 20 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ETH is gaining momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ETH closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ETH is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ETH is losing momentum. 

As of 20 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that ETH is starting to gain momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ETH
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ETH on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ETH from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ETH

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 20 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ETH is neither overbought nor oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 20 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that ETH is neither overbought nor oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of ETH, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Ethereum Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Ethereum defined above, ETH seems to trade at a similar risk level on 20 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 10 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -13.67% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for Ethereum

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ETH price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ETH is trading above the median percentile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that ETH is neither overbought nor oversold.

6. ETH Community Analytics

Number of ETH Followers In The Past 24 Months


During the past 24 months, Ethereum followers have grown 344.08 % from 448,416 to 1,991,327 on Twitter and grown 164.58 % from 448,670 to 1,187,070 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on May 2021.

Number of ETH Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Ethereum followers have grown 6.42 % from 1,871,140 to 1,991,327 on Twitter and grown 2.12 % from 1,162,432 to 1,187,070 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on 01 Dec 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 05 Dec 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

"ethereum" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-09 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "ethereum" Google Score has decreased 3.23 % from 37.2 to 36.0
Over the last 6 months, "ethereum" Google Score has increased 24.14 % from 29.0 to 36.0

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Ethereum forks increased 24.93% from 10,116 to 12,638 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Ethereum stars increased 24.44% from 27,468 to 34,182 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Ethereum pull request contributors increased 22.81% from 491 to 603 in the past year.

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